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The Altcoingazette.com (ACG) follows news on Precious Metals, mostly .999 Gold Bullion and .999 Silver Bullion. The ACG hold a portfolio of Precious Metals as a hedge against inflation and cryptocurrency risk. 


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1/22/2021

Precious Metals Climb With Gold At A 1-1/2 Week High On The Prospects For Additional U.S. Stimulus

Feb gold (GCG21) this morning is up +14.80 (+0.80%), and March silver (SIH21) is up +0.260 (+1.03%). 

Gold and silver prices this morning are moderately higher with gold at a 1-1/2 week high. Precious metals have carry-over support from Tuesday when Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen endorsed President Biden's plan for more debt-fueled stimulus. Gold prices also garnered support today from an increase in inflation expectations to a new 2-1/4 year high. 

Comments on Tuesday from Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen sparked demand for gold as a store of value when she said "further action is needed to avoid recession" and that "acting big" on stimulus is the smartest thing to do. Yellen's comments indicate she favors much of President Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package. 

An increase in inflation expectations is positive for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today climbed to a new 2-1/4 year high of 2.127%. 

Today's U.S. economic data was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices after the Jan NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -3 to a 4-month low of 83, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 86. 

Precious metals prices today are being undercut by strength in the dollar and a rally in stocks, which reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals. 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. Germany today reported a record 1,734 Covid deaths, and on Tuesday, the country extended its lockdown measures until mid-February in an attempt to contain the pandemic. Globally, Covid infections have risen above 96.741 million, and deaths have exceeded 2.068 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-3/4 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 3-1/2 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.

1/22/2021
Precious Metals Close Lower On Dollar Strength And On Demand Concerns For Industrial Metals

Feb gold (GCG21) on Friday closed down -9.70 (-0.52%), and March silver (SIH21) closed down -0.298 (-1.15%). 

Gold and silver prices on Friday posted moderate losses on strength in the dollar. Silver prices on Friday also retreated after Germany cut its GDP estimates for this year, which signals reduced industrial metals demand. Losses in gold were contained as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for gold. Silver prices also recovered from their worst levels Friday on better-than-expected U.S. economic data. 

Friday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Jan Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +2.0 to 59.1, stronger than expectations of -0.6 to 56.5, and the fastest pace of expansion since the data series began in 2007. Also, Dec existing home sales unexpectedly rose +0.7% to 6.76 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 6.56 million. 

The action by the German government on Friday to cut its economic forecasts for this year were supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Germany cut its 2021 GDP estimate to 3.0% from a 4.4% projection in October, citing extended lockdowns place in place to slow the spread of Covid. 

Comments today from ECB Governing Council member Vasiloauskas were negative for gold when he said, "the balance of risks is still on the negative side, but there are signs that could turn the balance of risks to neutral." 

Slack consumer price pressures in Japan are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after Japan Dec national CPI ex-fresh food & energy fell -0.4% y/y, the fastest pace of decline in 7-1/2 years. 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. President Biden warned late Thursday that the pandemic would worsen before it improves as the U.S. faces a "dark winter" where another 100,000 U.S. Covid deaths are expected over the next month. Globally, Covid infections have risen above 98.204 million, and deaths have exceeded 2.103 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long silver positions in ETFs rose to a record high Thursday of 912.058 million troy ounces (data from 1990). However, long liquidation has set in gold after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-3/4 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). 

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) the recent sell-off in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs near or at record highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the pandemic and the weak global economy, (3) the recent surge in T-note yields to a 10-month high, which encourages investors to move out of non-interest-bearing metals and into better-yielding government debt, (4) recent optimism that a Covid vaccine will spur an economic recovery, which has sparked long liquidation gold, and (5) record-high stock prices, which curbs the safe-haven demand for gold and silver.



1/15/2021

Precious Metals Close Moderately Lower On Dollar Strength And Doubts About Pandemic Aid Size

Feb gold (GCG21) on Friday closed down -21.50 (-1.16%), and March silver (SIH21) closed down -0.936 (-3.63%). 

Gold and silver prices on Friday closed moderately lower. A rally in the dollar index to a 3-1/2 week high Friday sparked long liquidation in metals. Also, doubts that Congress will pass president-elect Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in its entirety weighed on precious metals. Silver prices extended their losses on Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. 

The realization that the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package may not pass in its current form weighed on precious metals prices Friday. Markets are concerned that Biden's proposals could be watered down by Congressional opposition and that the final version of the stimulus may be well below the initial $1.9 trillion figure. 

Friday's U.S. economic data was mostly weaker than expected, which was supportive of gold but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Dec retail sales fell -0.7% m/m and -1.4% m/m ex-autos, much weaker than expectations of unch m/m and -0.2% m/m ex-autos. Also, the Jan Empire manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -1.4 to a 7-month low of 3.5, much weaker than expectations of +1.1 to 6.0. In addition, the Jan University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index fell -1.5 to 79.2, weaker than expectations of -0.8 to 79.5. A bearish factor for gold but a positive for silver was the +0.9% m/m increase in U.S. Dec manufacturing production, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m. 

Slack U.S. producer price pressures are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after Friday's data showed that the U.S Dec core PPI report of +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y was slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y. 

Losses in metals were limited Friday by the sell-off in U.S. stock indexes to 1-week lows, which provided some safe-haven demand for precious metals. 

Gold still has safe-haven support from political instability in Italy. Members of ex-Premier Renzi's Italy Alive Party quit the coalition on Wednesday, leaving Prime Minister Conte without a majority in parliament. Unless Conte can secure additional support to regain a majority in parliament, he may be forced to resign, form a new government, or call for snap elections. 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. Germany reported a record of more than 1,500 Covid deaths on Friday, and Chancellor Merkel seeks to tighten and expand lockdown restrictions. Also, France expanded a daily 12-hour curfew nationwide starting Sunday. In addition, Italy's Health Minister said Friday that the government might need to return to a strict lockdown as Covid infections soar. Globally, Covid infections have risen above 93.664 million, and deaths have exceeded 2.005 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 3-1/4 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces. 

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) the sell-off in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs near record highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the pandemic and the weak global economy, (3) the surge in T-note yields to a 9-3/4 month high, which encourages investors to move out of non-interest-bearing metals and into better-yielding government debt, (4) recent optimism that a Covid vaccine will spur an economic recovery, which has sparked long liquidation gold, and (5) record-high stock prices, which curbs the safe-haven demand for gold and silver.



1/13/2020

Precious Metals Settle Higher On Dovish Central Bank Comments

Feb gold (GCG21) on Wednesday closed up +10.70 (+0.58%), and March silver (SIH21) closed up +0.137 (+0.54%). 

Gold and silver on Wednesday settled moderately higher on dovish comments from global central bank officials. Precious metals also gained on increased safe-haven demand after the U.S. reported a record number of Covid deaths on Tuesday. Gains in metals prices were limited Wednesday by a rally in stocks and a stronger dollar. 

Wednesday's global economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Eurozone Nov industrial production rose +2.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest increase in 4 months. Also, Japan Dec machine tool orders rose +8.7% y/y, the biggest increase in 2-1/4 years. 

Dovish Fed comments on Wednesday were supportive of precious metals prices. Fed Governor Brainard said, "the economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation and that the current pace of bond purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time." Also, St Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed must "regain credibility" that it will hit its 2% inflation target and "we are going to be less pre-emptive than we would have been" in previous decades and "we are going to let inflation go over target." 

Comments on Wednesday from ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau were dovish for ECB policy and supportive for precious metals when he said, "the ECB remains clearly committed to its 2% inflation target and to achieve this we will maintain favorable monetary conditions for as long as necessary." 

Wednesday's U.S. consumer price data showed slack price pressures that are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. Dec CPI ex-food & energy rose +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, right on expectations. 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. The U.S. reported a record of 4,610 Covid deaths on Tuesday. Also, the UK on Wednesday reported a record of 3,363 people on mechanical ventilators due to Covid. In addition, Japan expanded its Covid state of emergency beyond the Tokyo region to seven more prefectures, encompassing an area that accounts for more than half of its economy. Globally, Covid infections have risen above 92.140 million, and deaths have exceeded 1.973 million. 

Precious metals have underlying support from expectations that the Democratic-controlled Congress will pass new deficit-expanding fiscal stimulus measures. Last Friday, President-elect Biden said his stimulus package price tag would be "high" and in the trillions of dollars. President-elect Biden said he plans to release details of his stimulus plans this Thursday. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 3-1/4 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.



1/12/2020
Precious Metals Settle Mixed With Silver Climbing On Optimism About Industrial Metals Demand

Feb gold (GCG21) on Tuesday closed down -6.6 (-0.36%), and March silver (SIH21) closed up +0.151 (+0.60%). 

Gold and silver on Tuesday settled mixed. Gold prices fell back Tuesday on rising global government bond yields along with strength in stocks that reduced the safe-haven demand for gold. Silver prices on Tuesday moved higher on global economic optimism that is positive for industrial metals demand. 

Higher global government bond yields are negative for precious metals prices as investors move out of non-interest-bearing metals and into better-yielding government debt. The 10-year T-note yield on Tuesday climbed to a 9-3/4 month high of 1.186% before falling back. Also, Germany's 10-year bund yield climbed to a 4-month high of -0.460% Tuesday and Japan's 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 2-month high of 0.043%. 

Tuesday's global economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Nov JOLTS job openings report fell -105,000 to 6.527 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations for a decline to 6.450 million. Also, the Japan Dec eco watchers survey expectations index unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 37.1, stronger than expectations of -6.0 to 30.5. 

Comments on Tuesday from Chinese President Xi Jinping helped lift China's Shanghai Composite to a 5-year high, which bolsters optimism in the economic outlook that is bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. President Xi Jinping told a gathering of Chinese provincial and ministerial-level officials that "time and the situation" were on China's side and that he saw "opportunities in general outweighing challenges," a positive shift in rhetoric from his previous dire-sounding warnings from recent months. 

Fed comments on Tuesday were bullish for precious metals. Kansas City Fed President George said recent data show the economy stalled late in 2020 due to the resurgent virus and uncertainty over fiscal support and that it is "too soon to speculate" on when the Fed will pull back on monetary support. Also, Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed will keep short-term interest rates low until inflation achieves 2% on a sustained basis and "continue to purchase longer-term assets until the economy is on a stronger economic footing." 

Comments on Tuesday from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel were supportive for gold demand as a store of value when he warned that "the biggest economic policy mistake that can happen is that monetary and fiscal policy are tightened too early." 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. The 7-day average of new U.S. Covid infections rose to a record 256,820 on Monday. Also, German Chancellor Merkel warned on Tuesday that Germany's hard lockdown could last into late March if authorities fail to contain the fast-spreading Covid variant that has emerged in Britain. Globally, Covid infections have risen above 91.442 million, and deaths have exceeded 1.956 million. 

Precious metals have underlying support from expectations that the Democratic-controlled Congress will pass new deficit-expanding fiscal stimulus measures. Last Friday, President-elect Biden said his stimulus package price tag would be "high" and in the trillions of dollars. President-elect Biden said he plans to release details of his stimulus plans this Thursday. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 3-1/4 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.

1/10/2021

Precious Metals Settle Sharply Lower As Dollar Strength And Rising T-Note Yields Spark Long Liquidation

 

Feb gold (GCG21) on Friday closed down -78.2 (-4.09%), and March silver (SIH21) closed down -2.624 (-9.63%). 

Gold and silver on Friday plunged to 3-week lows and settled sharply lower. A rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week high Friday, along with a surge in T-note yields, sparked heavy long liquidation pressure in metals. Losses in gold accelerated Friday on technical selling after gold prices crossed below the 100-day moving average. 

This week's surge in T-note yields is negative for precious metals prices as investors move out of non-interest-bearing metals and into better-yielding government debt. The 10-year T-note yield on Friday climbed to a new 2-year high of 1.124%. 

Precious metals extended their losses Friday on upbeat comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida that reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals when he said that "the development of several effective vaccines indicates to me that the prospects for the economy in 2021 and beyond have brightened and the downside risk to the outlook has diminished." 

Friday's U.S. labor market data was mixed for precious metals. A positive for gold and a negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices was the unexpected decline in U.S. Dec nonfarm payrolls by -140,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +50,000 and marking the first decline in eight months. Gold also garnered support Friday after U.S. Dec average hourly earnings rose +5.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.5% y/y and the largest year-on-year increase in 7 months, which is supportive for gold as an inflation hedge. 

Global economic data on Friday was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone Nov unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to a 5-month low of 8.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 8.5%. Also, German Nov industrial production rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m. In addition, Japan Nov household spending unexpectedly rose +1.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.0% y/y. 

Gold has support from the worsening Covid pandemic, which is dovish for central bank policies. However, the pandemic is forcing countries to tighten their lockdowns, which is negative for economic growth and industrial metals demand and bearish for silver prices. The U.S. reported a record of 4,102 Covid deaths on Thursday, and hospitalizations from Covid also rose to a record 132,370. In addition, Germany reported a record 1,152 Covid deaths Friday as deaths in Germany have more than doubled since the start of December. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-1/2 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces. 

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) the sell-off in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs near record highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the pandemic and the weak global economy, (3) the surge in T-note yields to a 9-1/2 month high, which encourages investors to move out of non-interest-bearing metals and into better-yielding government debt, (4) recent optimism that a Covid vaccine will spur an economic recovery, which has sparked long liquidation gold, and (5) record-high stock prices, which curbs the safe-haven demand for gold and silver.


1/7/2021

Precious Metals Climb On The Outlook For Additional U.S. Stimulus


1/4/2021

Gold Rallies Sharply To 8-Week High On Increased Inflation Expectations

Feb gold (GCG21) today is sharply higher by +48.7 (+2.57%), and March silver (SIH21) is up +1.158 (+4.38%). 

Gold today rallied to a new 8-week high, and March silver edged to a new 3-1/2 month high. Precious metals prices are seeing support from rising inflation expectations and from U.S. political uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's Georgia run-off elections. 

Precious metals prices are seeing support from rising inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today is up +1.9 bp at 2.006%, exceeding the Fed's +2.0% inflation target for the first time in more than two years. The breakeven rate measures the difference between the nominal 10-year T-note yield and the 10-year inflation-adjusted TIPS yield. 

Precious metals prices are also seeing support from fears about a post-holiday pandemic surge, which would be dovish for central bank policies. The number of new U.S. Covid infections on Saturday posted a record high of 299,087. The Covid virus has infected 85.6 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.8 million. On the brighter side, Dr. Fauci said on Sunday there is no reason the U.S. shouldn't be able to ramp up vaccinations to 1 million per day, which would be double the pace seen in the last few days of about 500,000 per day. 

Precious metals prices are seeing safe-haven support from U.S. political uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's two U.S. Senate seat run-off elections in Georgia, which will determine political control of the Senate. If the Democrats win both seats, they would take control of the Senate and have full control of Washington, allowing them to pass at least parts of the blue-wave agenda. New debt-fueled stimulus programs would be bullish for precious metals prices. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low on December 22, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-1/2 month low on November 30, down from the mid-November record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.


12/30/2020

Precious Metals Climb As The Dollar Sinks To A New 2-1/2 Year Low

12/29/2020

Gold Sees Support From Weak Dollar But Silver Turns Lower On Covid Concerns

Feb gold (GCG21) this morning is up +1.90 (+0.10%), and Mar silver (SIH21) is down -0.244 (-0.92%). 

Precious metals this morning are mixed. Metals have support today on a weaker dollar as the dollar index fell to a 1-week low. Gold prices also have support as U.S. lawmakers push for additional U.S. pandemic stimulus. Silver prices fell back on concern that the ongoing Covid pandemic will force lockdowns to be tightened and extended, which will curb economic growth and industrial metals demand. Gold prices fell back from their best levels after U.S. stock indexes rallied to new record highs, which reduces the safe-haven demand of gold. 

Gold prices are climbing today as increased U.S. stimulus measures fuel demand for gold as a store of value. President Trump on Sunday night signed the $900 billion pandemic relief bill and the $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill. Also, gold is gaining on hopes for even more stimulus after the U.S. House of Representatives backed President Trump's proposal on Monday night to boost stimulus checks to $2,000 from $600, although that bill may not get far in the Senate. 

Today's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Oct S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose +1.61% m/m and +7.95% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.00% m/m and +6.95% y/y, with the +7.95% y/y gain being the largest year-on-year increase in 6-1/4 years. 

The recent pandemic surge has curbed global economic growth and has forced global central banks to remain highly dovish, which is bullish for gold as a store of value. It also may force countries to keep lockdowns in place for longer, which will undercut economic growth and industrial metals demand. U.S. Covid hospitalizations rose to a record high of 121,235 on Monday. Also, U.S.infectious disease specialist Fauci warned that "a surge upon a surge" in new U.S. Covid infections may be on the way in January after the Christmas and New Year's periods. In addition, the number of new Covid cases in the UK reached a record of more than 41,000 on Monday. The Covid virus has infected 81.816 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.784 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/4 month low last Tuesday, down from October's record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-1/2 month low on November 30, down from November's record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.

12/18/2020

#Crudeoil up from $27ish on 4/20/20...now fills the gap, with #breakout > greater than $45ish and with #uptrend!  

Crude Closes At A 9-1/2 Month High On Pandemic Stimulus Optimism...With Crude trending up...Silver Bullion is sure to follow, thus bullish on .999 Silver Bullion!


12/17/2020

Gold Rallies To 1-Month High On Slumping Dollar And Outlook For More Pandemic Stimulus

12/16/2020

Silver bullion .999 is looking good technically...if it clears $26.00ish...could go to the Moooooon! 

12/15/2020

Precious Metals Settle Higher On Dollar Weakness And Stimulus Optimism

Precious metals on Tuesday rallied on dollar weakness and on hopes U.S. lawmakers will pass a pandemic aid package. Also, the worsening Covid pandemic may lead to more restrictive lockdowns that are dovish for central bank policies and bullish for gold. Silver prices also garnered support Tuesday on signs of strength in China's economy that is supportive for industrial metals demand. 

Hope that U.S. lawmakers will pass pandemic stimulus is boosting demand for gold as a store of value. After a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers failed to come to a consensus on a Covid liability shield for employers, the lawmakers split the proposal into two separate legislative proposals. The first is for $748 billion and includes aid to small businesses and vaccine funding, and the second includes $160 billion for the two most contentious items, i.e., state-local government aid and a Covid liability shield. The market is hoping that Congress will at least pass the first bill to get the bulk of the pandemic aid into gear before year-end. 

Signs of strength in China's economy are supportive for industrial metals demand and bullish for silver prices. China's Nov industrial production rose +7.0% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 20 months. Also, China's Nov retail sales rose +5.0% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 11 months. 

Dovish ECB comments on Tuesday are supportive for gold demand as a store of value. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said "the Governing Council stands ready to use and adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves toward its aim in a sustained manner." Also, ECB Governing Council member Vasiliauskas said, "it's likely that the hard lockdown in Germany will have an impact on the numbers of the Eurozone." 

The worsening pandemic is curbing global economic growth and is forcing global central banks to remain highly dovish, which is bullish for gold as a store of value. It also may force countries to keep lockdowns in place for longer, which will undercut economic growth and industrial metals demand. U.S deaths from Covid topped 300,000 on Monday. Also, Italian Prime Minister Conte said he plans "further restrictive measures" over the holiday season to curb the virus, and the British Medical Journal and Health Service Journal called on the UK to ban households from mixing over Christmas to protect the National Health Service. The Covid virus has infected 73.338 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.631 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 4-1/2 month low Monday. Long gold positions in ETFs on October 15 had risen to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-1/4 month low on November 30. Long silver positions in ETFs on November 10 rose to a new record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.



12/10/2020

This news could be rather bullish for the price action of .999 silver bullion?

Crude Oil Surges To A 9-1/4 Month High On Optimism Covid Vaccines Will Spur Global Growth


12/7/2020

Gold Settles At A 2-Week High On No-Deal Brexit Concerns And Prospects For More Pandemic Stimulus



12/4/2020

Precious Metals Are Slightly Lower As Record High In Stocks Curbs Safe-Haven Demand

Barchart

Feb gold (GCG21) this morning is down -6.30 (-0.34%), and Mar silver (SIH21) is down -0.017 (-0.07%). 

Precious metals this morning are slightly lower as a rally in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials to new record highs reduces the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, today’s jump in U.S. T-note yields is negative for gold prices. Losses in metals were limited by today's fall in the dollar index to a new 2-1/2 year low. Also, optimism that global central banks and governments will boost stimulus measures is supportive for precious metals.

 Gold prices are under pressure as the 10-year T-note yield rose to an 8-1/2 month high today of 0.984%. 

Slack gold demand from India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, is bearish for gold prices after today's news that India's Nov gold imports fell -41% y/y to 33.1 MT and Jan-Nov gold imports fell -63% y/y to 220.2 MT. 

Improved prospects for passage of a debt-fueled pandemic stimulus plan is positive for gold demand as a store of value after House Speaker Pelosi endorsed a bipartisan $908 billion stimulus package offered by a bipartisan group of Senators. 

The outlook for additional global central bank stimulus is bullish for gold prices. According to several ECB officials, the ECB at its meeting next Thursday will likely agree to extend the pandemic bond-buying program by a full year until the middle of 2022. Also, the prospects for additional Fed stimulus measures rose today after Chicago Fed President Evans said the U.S. November jobs report was "a little disappointing." 

Today's global economic data was mostly bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Oct factory orders rose +1.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m. Also, German Oct factory orders rose +2.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.5% m/m. Gold did find support on today's news that showed U.S. Nov nonfarm payrolls rose +245,000, weaker than expectations of +460,000 and the smallest increase in 7 months. Also, signs of faster wage growth are positive for gold demand after U.S. Nov average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +4.2% y/y. 

An increase in inflation expectations is supportive of gold demand as a hedge against inflation. The 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today rose to a new 1-1/2 year high of 1.905%. 

The worsening pandemic is curbing global economic growth and is forcing global central banks to remain highly dovish, which is bullish for gold as a store of value. It also may force countries to keep lockdowns in place for longer, which will undercut economic growth and industrial metals demand. The U.S. has reported more than 100,000 new daily Covid infections for twenty-nine consecutive days through Thursday. The Covid virus has infected 65.705 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.515 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 4-1/4 month low Thursday. Long gold positions in ETFs on Oct 15 had risen to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 2-month low on Monday. Long silver positions in ETFs on Nov 10 rose to a new record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.

Read Full Article here: https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/GCG21/overview/748335/precious-metals-are-slightly-lower-as-record-high-in-stocks-curbs-safe-haven-demand





12/1/2020

Barchart

Precious Metals Close Sharply Higher On Weak Dollar And Dovish Fed Outlook

Precious metals on Tuesday rallied sharply with silver at a 1-week high. A slump in the dollar index to a fresh 2-1/2 year low fueled buying of precious metals, along with expectations the Fed will maintain its stimulus measures. Silver prices also garnered support from signs of robust industrial metals demand as global manufacturing activity strengthened. 

Dovish comments on Tuesday from Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed will maintain stimulus measures and were supportive for gold demand as a store of value when he said the Fed would continue to provide very strong support, and it is premature to be pulling back support for the economy. 

Signs of robust global manufacturing activity were supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The China Nov Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.3 to a 10-year high of 54.9, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 53.5. Also, the Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 53.8 from the previously reported 53.6. In addition, the Japan Nov Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.7 to a 15-month high of 49.0 from the previously reported 48.3. Conversely, the U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing PMI fell -1.8 to 57.5, weaker than expectations of 58.0. 

A bullish factor for gold was Tuesday's news that the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) in its quarterly report cut its global 2021 GDP forecast to +4.2% from a Sep forecast of +5%, citing the resurgence of the Covid pandemic. 

Weak Eurozone price pressures are negative for gold demand as an inflation hedge after Tuesday's data showed Eurozone Nov CPI fell -0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% y/y. Also, Eurozone Nov core CPI rose +0.2% y/y, right on expectations, and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data began in 1997. 

Tuesday's rally in global equity markets is negative for the safe-haven demand for precious metals. The S&P 500 posted a new record high Tuesday, the Nikkei Stock Index soared to a 29-1/2 year high, and the Shanghai Composite climbed to a 4-1/2 month high. 

The worsening pandemic is curbing global economic growth and is forcing global central banks to remain highly dovish, which is bullish for gold as a store of value. The U.S. has reported more than 100,000 new daily Covid infections for twenty-six consecutive days through Sunday. The Covid virus has infected 63.747 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.477 million. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. However, long liquidation has set in after long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 4-month low Monday. Long gold positions in ETFs on Oct 15 had risen to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 1-3/4 month low on Monday. Long silver positions in ETFs on Nov 10 rose to a new record high of 904.165 million troy ounces.

Read Full Article here: https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/SIH21/overview/725250/precious-metals-close-sharply-higher-on-weak-dollar-and-dovish-fed-outlook




11/19/2020

Precious Metals Settle At 1-1/2 Week Lows As Vaccine Progress Sparks Long Liquidation

Precious Metals Push Higher On Dollar Weakness And Dovish Fed Comments


11/12/2020

Precious Metals Move Higher As Worsening Pandemic Is Dovish For Central Bank Policy



11/11/2020

Precious Metals Settle Higher As The Pandemic Worsens

Precious Metals Plunge As Stocks And Bond Yields Soar On Covid Vaccine Optimism


11/6/2020

Gold And Silver Close At 1-1/2 Month Highs On A Slumping Dollar And U.S. Political Uncertainty
Barchart

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Friday closed up +4.90 (+0.25%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.471 (+1.87%).

Precious metals on Friday climbed to 1-1/2 month highs. Dollar weakness sparked fund buying of metals after the dollar index tumbled to a 2-month low on Friday. Also, gold still has flight-to-safety demand on U.S. political uncertainty with the U.S. presidential election's outcome yet to be determined.

Friday's U.S. labor market data was bearish for gold but bullish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Oct nonfarm payrolls rose +638,000, stronger than expectations of +580,000. Also, the Oct unemployment rate fell -1.0 to a 7-month low of 6.9%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of -0.3 to 7.6%.

Other global economic data on Friday was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German Sep industrial production rose +1.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.5% m/m. Also, U.S. Sep wholesale trade sales rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.1% m/m.

Read full article here: https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/SIZ20/overview/586899/gold-and-silver-close-at-1-12-month-highs-on-a-slumping-dollar-and-us-political-uncertainty





11/5/2020

Gold Rallies To A 6-Week High On Dollar Weakness And BOE's Expansion Of QE

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up +52.00 (+2.74%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is up +1.247 (+5.22%).

Precious metals this morning are sharply higher, with gold at a 6-week high and silver at a 2-week high. A decline in the dollar index to a 2-week low is fueling gains in metals today, along with the BOE's expansion of its QE program. Gold still has flight-to-safety demand on U.S. political uncertainty with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election yet to be determined.

Gold prices saw support after the Bank of England (BOE) today expanded its QE program by 150 billion pounds starting January, more than expectations of 100 billion pounds.

A bullish factor for silver prices and industrial metals demand was today's action by the European Commission to raise its Eurozone 2020 GDP estimate to -7.8% from a -8.7% estimate in July.

Today's global economic data was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -7,000 to 751,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations for a decline to 735,000. Also, Eurozone Sep retail sales fell -2.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 5 months. In addition, German Sep factory orders rose +0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.0% m/m and the smallest increase in 6 months.

Dovish ECB comments today supported gold demand as a store of value after ECB Vice President Guindos said the Eurozone economic recovery is doing to be "more sluggish" in 2021 than the ECB has previously projected.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and forced dovish global central bank policies, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. However, the pandemic surge may spark additional stay-at-home orders that curb economic growth and are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Daily Covid deaths worldwide set a new record of more than 10,000 on Wednesday, and daily global infections rose to a record above 600,000. Average daily cases in the U.S. in the last week of October were 35,000 higher than the last week of September. The UK on Saturday joined other European countries, including Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and others, in imposing lockdowns that will slow economic growth. The Covid virus has now infected 48.622 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.233 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Oct 15 rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

Read full article here: https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/GCZ20/overview/576297/gold-rallies-to-a-6-week-high-on-dollar-weakness-and-boes-expansion-of-qe

11/4/2020

Precious Metals Close Lower As Stocks Surge And Chances Of Big Stimulus Bill Are Shot Down

 

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed down -14.20 (-0.74%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -0.441 (-1.81%).

Precious metals on Wednesday retreated as a sharp rally in stocks curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, metals prices retreated on the outlook for a smaller-than-expected pandemic stimulus plan after Tuesday's U.S. election results showed that Congress would remain divided. Gold still had flight-to-safety demand on U.S. political uncertainty with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election yet to be determined. A decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low Wednesday was supportive for metals prices.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Oct ADP employment rose by only +365,000, weaker than expectations of +643,000. Also, the Oct ISM services index fell -1.2 to 56.5, weaker than expectations of -0.3 to 57.5.

Dovish ECB comments on Wednesday supported gold demand as a store of value after ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said the second wave of Covid requires further monetary stimulus to support the economy. Also, ECB Governing Council member Hernandez de Cos said new restraints to stem the spread of Covid in Europe could "lead to a significant slowdown" in economic output and "even to a contraction" in some countries in Q4.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and forced dovish global central bank policies, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. However, the pandemic surge may spark additional stay-at-home orders that curb economic growth and are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Average daily cases in the U.S. in the last week of October were 35,000 higher than the last week of September. The UK on Saturday joined other European countries, including Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and others, in imposing lockdowns that will slow economic growth. The Covid virus has now infected 48.042 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.223 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Oct 15 rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

Read full article here: https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/GCZ20/overview/568304/precious-metals-close-lower-as-stocks-surge-and-chances-of-big-stimulus-bill-are-shot-down

 

10/30/2020

Losses Mount For Oil Majors As Pandemic Grips Global Economy

 

NEW YORK (AP) — Exxon Mobil reported its third consecutive quarter of losses as the global pandemic curtails travel and cripples global economic activity.

The energy giant on Friday posted a $680 million third-quarter loss and revenue tumbled to $46.2 billion, down from $65.05 billion during the same quarter last year.

The string of losses and what could be a money-losing year is new territory for Exxon Mobil.

“This is a business that’s made a billion dollars a quarter on average from 2011 to 2018 and it’s had a rough go,” said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge, a research firm.

Already struggling with weak prices from oversupply, the pandemic is taking a heavy toll on oil and gas companies. The price of U.S. benchmark crude has fallen 40% since the start of the year. The cost for a barrel of oil tumbled 10% just this week as coronavirus infections surged in the U.S. and abroad. 

10/29/2020

Gold Closes At A 1-Month Low On Dollar Strength And Better-Than-Expected U.S. Economic Data

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Thursday closed down -11.20 (-0.60%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.001 (unchanged).

Precious metals on Thursday settled mixed with gold at a new 1-month low. A rally in the dollar index Thursday to a 3-1/2 week high pressured metals prices. Silver recovered from a 1-month low and settled unchanged after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data today signaled strength in industrial metals demand.

Thursday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Q3 GDP rose by a record +33.1% (q/q annualized), the fastest pace of growth since the data began in 1947 and stronger than expectations of +32.0%. Also, weekly initial unemployment claims fell -40,000 to a 7-1/4 month low of 751,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 770,000. A bullish factor for gold and a negative for silver was Thursday's data that showed U.S. Sep pending home sales unexpectedly fell -2.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.9% m/m and the first decline in 5 months.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and forced dovish global central bank policies, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. However, the rise in Covid infections may spark additional stay-at-home orders that curb economic growth and are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Covid virus has now infected 44.912 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.181 million.

The surge in new Covid infections throughout Europe is forcing more countries to impose new stay-at-home measures and is bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German Chancellor Merkel on Wednesday announced that bars and restaurants in Germany would close for a month in an attempt to curb the surge in Covid infections, and French President Macron ordered a new national lockdown where bars, restaurants, and non-essential retailers will be forced to close for a month.

Comments on Thursday from ECB President Lagarde were bullish for gold and bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices when she said that the near-term outlook has deteriorated and "the economy is losing momentum faster than expected."

Slack price pressures in Germany are negative for gold demand as an inflation hedge after German Oct CPI (EU harmonized) fell -0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.4% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 5-3/4 years.

The BOJ's cut in its 2020 growth estimate for Japan is bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices after the BOJ cut its 2020 Japan GDP forecast to -5.5% from -4.7% and said "the outlook for economic activity and prices is extremely unclear" and could change depending on the virus spread.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Oct 15 rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.




10/26/2020

Gold Sees Support On Lack Of Progress In Stimulus Talks And Surging Covid Infections

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up +0.60 (+0.03%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is down -0.225 (-0.91%).

Precious metals this morning are mixed with silver at a 1-week low. A slump in stocks and lower T-note yields are supporting gold prices today, while a stronger dollar and rising global Covid infections are raising concerns about economic growth and are weighing on silver prices.

A lack of progress in U.S. pandemic stimulus talks is negative for gold prices. White House economic advisor Kudlow said today that there are certain aspects of the Democrats' stimulus plan that President Trump will not accept. Funding for state and local governments remains the key issue singled out by both sides as a remaining stumbling block to a stimulus deal.


10/23/2020

Precious Metals Are Weaker As Lack Of Progress In Stimulus Talks Spurs Long Liquidation Pressure

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -6.10 (-0.43%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is down -0.094 (-0.38%).

Precious metals this morning are weaker as a lack of progress in U.S. pandemic stimulus talks weighs on prices. Today's stronger-than-expected global manufacturing PMI reports were snegative for gold prices but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. A weaker dollar today is supportive of metals prices.

Slow U.S. pandemic stimulus talks are weighing on gold prices today after White House economic advisor Kudlow said that "the ball's not moving much right now" on talks for another round of pandemic stimulus. Even if there is a Pelosi-Mnuchin agreement and passage of a bill by the House, there is no assurance that the Republican Senate will pass the bill, either before or after the election.

Strength in global manufacturing activity is bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-year high of 54.4, stronger than expectations of -0.7 to 53.0. Also, the Japan Oct Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to a 9-month high of 48.0. Conversely, the U.S. Oct Markit manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 53.3, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 53.5 but still the fastest pace of expansion in 1-3/4 years.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and forced dovish global central bank policies, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. Italy today reported a record of 19,143 new Covid infections. France reported a record 41,622 new Covid cases Thursday as the government expanded a curfew with 46 million people told to stay home from 9 pm to 6 am. Also, new U.S. Covid cases exceeded 70,000 on Thursday for the first time since July. The Covid virus has now infected 42.117 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.144 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

10/22/2020

Precious Metals Fall On A Stronger Dollar And Delayed Stimulus Bill

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -29.30 (-1.52%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is down -0.576 (-2.28%).

Precious metals this morning are moderately lower on strength in the dollar and reduced chances of any new U.S. fiscal stimulus anytime soon. Gold prices also fell back on better-than-expected U.S. economic data and a surge in T-note yields that reduce the demand for gold as a store of value.

Precious metals prices are being undercut by the slow progress on another pandemic relief package. House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are scheduled to pick up stimulus discussions again today, but funding for state and local governments remains the key issue singled out by both sides as a remaining stumbling block to a stimulus deal.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data today is bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -55,000 to 787,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 870,000. Also, Sep existing home sales rose +9.4% to a 14-1/4 year high of 6.54 million, stronger than expectations of 6.30 million. In addition, Sep leading indicators rose +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m.

Higher T-note yields reduce demand for gold as a store of value and are bearish for gold prices. The 10-year T-note yield today jumped to a 4-1/2 month high of 0.851%.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. There is increasing evidence that the Covid pandemic is worsening. Germany reported a record of 12,331 new Covid infections today. Poland reported a record 12,107 new Covid cases, and Spain's Health Minister said the spread of Covid is out of control in certain parts of Spain. Also, the U.S. hospitalizations for Covid rose to a 2-month high. The Covid virus has now infected 41.593 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.137 million.

An increase in inflation expectations is also bullish for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-1/2 month high today of 1.7539%.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.


10/21/2020

Precious Metals Close Higher On A Weak Dollar And Stimulus Optimism

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Tuesday closed up +3.70 (+0.19%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.282 (+1.14%).

On Tuesday, precious metals closed higher on a weak dollar and optimism U.S lawmakers will agree on a debt-fueled pandemic stimulus package. The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 1-month low, which was bullish for precious metals. A rally in stocks on Tuesday reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals and undercut gold prices. Silver prices saw support from a strong U.S. building permits report and a strong Chinese auto sales report.

Hopes that U.S. lawmakers can pass additional pandemic stimulus measures are positive for gold demand as a store of value. Optimism improved that U.S. lawmakers will pass a pandemic relief plan after House Speaker Pelosi on Tuesday said a stimulus bill is being drafted as both sides are closing in on an aid package.

Tuesday's U.S housing data was mixed for metal prices. Silver prices saw support from the +1.5% increase in U.S. Sep housing starts to 1.415 million, although that was weaker than expectations of +1.465 million. Meanwhile, Sep building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +5.2% to a 13-1/2 year high of 1.553 million, stronger than expectations of +1.520 million.

Silver prices garnered support Tuesday on signs of strength in China's economy that is positive for industrial metals demand. China Sep vehicle sales jumped +13% y/y to 2.57 million, adding to Aug's +11.7% y/y increase.

Comments on Tuesday from Chicago Fed President Evans were supportive of gold demand as a store of value when he said "we need to be careful not to prematurely raise rates" and that the focus should probably be on the balance sheet if the Fed decides it needs to provide more support to the economy.

Comments on Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Hernandez de Cos were supportive of gold demand when he said, "We must maintain significant monetary stimulus until we achieve a strong recovery" as the economic shock from the Covid pandemic has been deeper than initially anticipated.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 40.745 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.124 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



10/20/2020

Metals Prices Close Higher On A Weak Dollar And Hopes For Additional U.S. Pandemic Stimulus

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Monday closed up +5.30 (+0.28%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.293 (+1.20%).

Precious metals on Monday pushed higher on a weak dollar and hopes for additional U.S. pandemic stimulus. Silver prices also gained Monday on better-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data. Weakness in stocks on Monday was also positive for the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Hopes that U.S. lawmakers can pass additional pandemic stimulus measures are positive for gold demand as a store of value. After weekend discussions with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, House Speaker Pelosi set a Tuesday deadline for more progress with Republican negotiators on a pandemic stimulus package before the Nov 3 election. President Trump countered by saying he could persuade Republicans to back a "good" deal. House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are scheduled to talk later Monday afternoon in an attempt to hammer out a virus relief package.

Monday's U.S economic data was negative for gold but supportive of industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Oct NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +2 to an all-time high of 85 (data from 1985), stronger than expectations of unchanged at 83.

Comments on Monday from Fed Vice Chair Clarida were supportive of gold prices when he said, "additional support from monetary and likely fiscal policy will be needed as it will take some time to return to the levels of economic activity and employment that prevailed at the business cycle peak in February."

Silver prices garnered support Monday on signs of strength in China's economy that is positive for industrial metals demand. China Sep industrial production rose +6.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.8% y/y and the most in 9 months. Also, China Sep retail sales rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.6% y/y and the most in 9 months. On the negative side for silver, China Q3 GDP rose +4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.5% y/y.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. Global Covid infections reached a single-day record of more than 415,000 on Friday. The Covid virus has now infected 40.367 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.119 million.

A bearish factor for gold prices was Monday's hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann who said, "based on the current information. I don't see the need yet to give further monetary impulses."

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,459.8 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

10/15/2020

Precious Metals Close Higher On Dollar Weakness And Dovish Central Banker Comments

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed up +12.70 (+0.67%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.266 (+1.10%).

Precious metals on Wednesday closed with moderate gains. Weakness in the dollar on Wednesday underpinned metals prices. Also, dovish comments on Wednesday from global central bankers sparked demand for gold as a store of value. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices as long gold positions in ETFs rose to another new record high on Tuesday.

Dovish comments Wednesday by various central bankers were bullish for gold as a store of value. Fed Vice Chair Clarida said on Wednesday that more monetary and fiscal policy support is likely needed as it may take another year to restore pre-Covid GDP levels and that returning to maximum employment will take even longer. Also, Richmond Fed President Barkin said a rebound in U.S. Covid infections to about 50,000 a day has added "uncertainty" to the economic outlook and may discourage businesses from hiring or investing. In addition, ECB chief economist Lane said inflation is "far below" where the ECB wants it to be, and it will continue to be a challenge even after the pandemic is dealt with.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 38.448 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.092 million.

A negative for silver prices is concern that the second wave of Covid sweeping across Europe is forcing European governments to impose restrictions in an attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic, which will slow economic growth and reduce demand for industrial metals. Italy reported a record 7,332 new Covid infections on Wednesday, and Poland reported a record high in both new Covid infections and deaths. Also, Austria and Croatia reported a record number of new Covid infections on Wednesday, and the Czech Republic reported its second-highest daily count of new Covid cases.

Wednesday's U.S. producer price data was stronger-than-expected and supportive for gold demand as an inflation hedge after the U.S Sep core PPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,457.21 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.


10/14/2020

Precious Metals Close Higher On Dollar Weakness And Dovish Central Banker Comments

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed up +12.70 (+0.67%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.266 (+1.10%).

Precious metals on Wednesday closed with moderate gains. Weakness in the dollar on Wednesday underpinned metals prices. Also, dovish comments on Wednesday from global central bankers sparked demand for gold as a store of value. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices as long gold positions in ETFs rose to another new record high on Tuesday.

Dovish comments Wednesday by various central bankers were bullish for gold as a store of value. Fed Vice Chair Clarida said on Wednesday that more monetary and fiscal policy support is likely needed as it may take another year to restore pre-Covid GDP levels and that returning to maximum employment will take even longer. Also, Richmond Fed President Barkin said a rebound in U.S. Covid infections to about 50,000 a day has added "uncertainty" to the economic outlook and may discourage businesses from hiring or investing. In addition, ECB chief economist Lane said inflation is "far below" where the ECB wants it to be, and it will continue to be a challenge even after the pandemic is dealt with.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 38.448 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.092 million.

A negative for silver prices is concern that the second wave of Covid sweeping across Europe is forcing European governments to impose restrictions in an attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic, which will slow economic growth and reduce demand for industrial metals. Italy reported a record 7,332 new Covid infections on Wednesday, and Poland reported a record high in both new Covid infections and deaths. Also, Austria and Croatia reported a record number of new Covid infections on Wednesday, and the Czech Republic reported its second-highest daily count of new Covid cases.

Wednesday's U.S. producer price data was stronger-than-expected and supportive for gold demand as an inflation hedge after the U.S Sep core PPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,457.21 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



10/13/2020

Precious Metals Tumble On Dollar Strength And Reduced Prospects For Additional Stimulus

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -34.70 (-1.80%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is down -1.011 (-4.00%).

Precious metals this morning are sharply lower on strength in the dollar and on reduced prospects additional U.S. debt-fueled pandemic stimulus. Silver prices also fell back on concern that rising Covid infections will prompt governments to impose additional lockdown measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic, which would undercut economic growth and curb industrial metals demand. 

Gold prices retreated on long liquidation as the prospects fade for a new U.S. pandemic relief package. Stimulus talks remain deadlocked among U.S. lawmakers, and a breakthrough in stimulus negotiations is not seen until after the presidential election next month.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 38.116 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.086 million.

However, silver prices fell back on concern the second wave of Covid sweeping across Europe will force European governments to impose additional lockdown measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic, which will slow economic growth and reduce demand for industrial metals. Germany reported 6,541 new Covid infections today, the most since April 3. Also, the Netherlands added almost 44,000 new Covid infections last week, a new record. Russia reported a record daily death toll from Covid infections today of 244 deaths.

Today's U.S. consumer price data shows slack inflation pressures that reduce demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the U.S Sep core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, right on expectations.

Gold prices also fell back, and silver prices garnered support, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today raised its global 2020 GDP forecast to -4.4% from a -5.2% forecast in June.

Chinese trade data today was positive for economic growth and bearish for gold prices but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. China Sep exports rose +9.9% y/y, close to expectations of +10.0% y/y and the largest increase in 16 months. Also, China Sep imports rose +13.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% y/y, and the biggest increase in 9 months.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,456.22 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



10/10/2020

Precious Metals Close At 2-1/2 Week Highs On Dollar Weakness And Expectations For Additional U.S. Pandemic Stimulus

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Friday closed up +31.10 (+1.64%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +1.232 (+5.16%).

Precious metals on Friday rallied sharply and posted 2-1/2 week highs. A fall in the dollar index to a 2-1/2 week low Friday boosted metals prices, along with optimism that U.S. lawmakers will agree to additional stimulus. A surge in new Covid infections in Europe is also boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven.

Increased demand for gold as a store of value boosted gold prices Friday on the possibility that U.S. lawmakers will boost debt-fueled pandemic stimulus measures on reports that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told House Speaker Pelosi that President Trump wants an agreement on a comprehensive pandemic relief package.

Dovish Fed comments on Friday were also supportive of gold prices after Chicago Fed President Evans said, "if things were somewhat worse and the recovery was slower, I think we would follow it up with more asset purchases." Also, Richmond Fed President Barkin said the Fed continues to do what it can to provide support and can't find evidence that QE has stoked inflation.

A surge in new Covid infections in Europe may further undercut economic growth as countries increase lockdown measures and are dovish for ECB policy and bullish for gold prices. The Spanish government on Friday declared a state of emergency for the Madrid region due to a spike in Covid infections. Also, Germany recorded more than 4,000 new Covid infections for a second day on Friday, the most since April, and Italy reported 5,372 new Covid cases Friday, the most since March.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 36.812 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.067 million.

A bearish factor for gold is Friday's rally in U.S. stock indexes to 1-month highs, which reduces the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

A jump in inflation expectations is supportive for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a 5-week high Friday of 1.748%.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,454.02 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) low global bond yields, which boost demand for gold as a store of value, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs near record highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, end-2020 Brexit risks, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, and (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the plunge in global economic activity from the Covid pandemic.



10/7/2020

Precious Metals Slide With Gold At A 1-Week Low As Stocks Rebound And Bond Yields Climb

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -18.40 (-0.96%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is down -0.061 (-0.26%).

Precious metals this morning are weaker, with gold at a 1-week low. A rebound in stocks this morning following Tuesday afternoon's plunge has reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Gold prices fell further on hawkish ECB comments today, and silver prices were weighed down on weak industrial production data from Germany. 

U.S stock indexes this morning are moving higher and are curbing the safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump tweeted late Tuesday night that he would back a limited pandemic relief package and that the House and Senate should immediately approve $160 billion of fiscal support for airlines and small businesses.

Higher global government bond yields are bearish for gold prices. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2-week high today of -0.485%, and the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield jumped to a 1-month high today of 0.042%.

Hawkish comments today from ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Weidmann weighed on gold prices when he said that the economy has recovered "somewhat more quickly than expected," and there's no immediate need for additional fiscal stimulus.

Silver prices were under pressure today on signs of weak industrial metals demand after German Aug industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.5% m/m

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 36.107 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.055 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,454.02 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



10/6/2020

Precious Metals Settle Lower On Higher Bond Yields And Reduced Safe-Haven Demand

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Tuesday closed down -11.30 (-0.59%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -0.639 (-2.60%).

Precious metals on Tuesday traded with moderate losses the entire day on reduced safe-haven demand after President Trump late Monday was discharged from the hospital and returned to the White House. Gold prices also fell back after T-note yields jumped to a 3-3/4 month high on Tuesday. Silver prices were weighed down on weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. Losses in metals were limited after the dollar index fell to a 2-week low on Tuesday. 

Tuesday's U.S. economic data was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Aug JOLTS job openings fell -204,000 to 6.493 million, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations for a decline to 6.500 million. Also, the Aug trade deficit of -$67.1 billion was wider than expectations of -$66.2 billion and was the largest deficit in 14 years.

A jump in global government bond yields was bearish for gold prices. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 3-3/4 month high Tuesday of 0.790%. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high Tuesday of -0.498%, and the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield climbed to a 4-week high Tuesday of 0.041%.

Dovish central bank comments on Tuesday were supportive of gold demand as a store of value. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that he does not see the Fed changing its monetary policy stance through 2021. Also, ECB Governing Council member Hernandez de Cos said, "We should maintain significant monetary stimulus until we ensure that the recovery is on solid footing."

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 35.786 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.050 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,454.02 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-1/4 month low on Sep 25, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.




10/3/2020

Billions In Bullion Shifted Ahead Of Dutch Bank Rebuild

The Netherlands' central bank transported its Dutch-based stock of gold — 14,000 bars and about 1,000 boxes of gold coins — from its headquarters in Amsterdam to a safe in the nearby city of Haarlem in a meticulously and closely guarded operation that ended Saturday, the bank said in a statement. 

Along with the bullion worth 10 billion euros ($11.7 billion), the bank also shifted bills worth another 4.5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) in the operation that was led by the Royal Dutch Military Police.

The cash and gold traveled about 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) in trucks guarded by armed military police, police motorcycle outriders and with a police helicopter hovering overhead. The operation started Friday and ended Saturday afternoon.

The military police said in a statement that the “carefully planned operation went smoothly and safely.”

The move comes ahead of renovations of the central bank's Amsterdam offices and the permanent move of the gold and bank bills to a vault that has yet to be built in the central town of Zeist.

The Dutch central bank doesn't store all its gold in the Netherlands. It also has large reserves stored in the United States, Britain and Canada.



9/30/2020

It is my experience that precious metals have one good rally bull market phase per year, so .999 silver bullion moves from $11.80 on 3/18/2020 to a parabolic move to $30.00ish on 8/7/2020. I would apply the W.D. Gann theory to this price action and think that .999 silver bullion would have a 50% to 60% price retracement of its previous move. So $30.00ish minus $9.00ish places .999 silver bullion back at $21.00ish, then the next move up? Old resistance of $21...becomes the "new" long term support? time will tell. $19 to $21 is the "retracement zone" 50% to 60% retracement is a great place to expect markets to pull back to. I doubt very much that .999 silver will trade <less than $20.00 USD...just my thoughts readers...    

Precious Metals Close Lower On A Rally In Stocks And Strong U.S. Economic Data

Precious metals prices on Wednesday fell back on a rally in stocks. Precious metals extended their losses on better-than-expected U.S. economic data that was hawkish for Fed policy. Metals also fell back on hopes that U.S. lawmakers can agree on a Covid relief package. 

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Wednesday undercut gold, although the strong data was positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Q2 GDP was unexpectedly revised upward by +0.3 to -31.4% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of unrevised at -31.7% (q/q annualized). Also, Sep ADP employment rose +749,000, stronger than expectations of +649,000. In addition, the Sep Chicago PMI rose +11.2 to 62.4, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 52.0, and the fastest pace of expansion in 1-3/4 years. Finally, Aug pending home sales jumped +20.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +17.6% y/y, and the largest year-over-year increase in 10-1/4 years.

Hopes that U.S. lawmakers may finally agree on a new pandemic stimulus package boosted stock prices Wednesday and curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Wednesday morning that he will talk to House Speaker Pelosi later Wednesday and that he expects to reach an agreement on a Covid relief package by Thursday. Democrats are awaiting a Republican counter-offer to their $2.2 trillion pandemic relief proposal.

Better-than-expected global economic data is negative for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The China Sep manufacturing PMI rose +0.5 to 51.5, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 51.3, and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Also, the China Sep non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.7 to 55.9, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 54.7, and the fastest pace of expansion in 6-3/4 years. In addition, Japan Aug industrial production rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m.

Comments on Wednesday from ECB Governing Council member Rehn were supportive of gold demand as a store of value when he said, "ECB monetary policy will continue to be accommodative for a long time as inflation has been too slow for a long time in the Eurozone and threatens to continue that way."

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 33.903 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.013 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,451.34 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-month low Friday, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.


9/29/2020

Precious Metals Settle Higher On A Weak Dollar And Dovish Fed Comments

Precious metals prices on Tuesday moved higher on a weak dollar and a slide in stocks. Better-than-expected U.S. economic data today was positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Also, dovish Fed comments today were supportive of gold demand as a store of value.

U.S. stock indexes on Tuesday retreated and gave precious metals a boost. Stocks moved lower on concern U.S. lawmakers will be unable to pass a new stimulus bill ahead of the November 3 election. House Democrats on Monday night released a new scaled-back $2.2 trillion Covid relief package proposal. House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin discussed the package Tuesday and said they would speak again on Wednesday. A deal still seems unlikely without further compromise as President Trump indicated he could support only as much as $1.5 trillion in additional aid.

Tuesday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Conference Board's U.S. Sep consumer confidence jumped +15.5 to a 6-month high of 101.8, stronger than expectations of 90.0. Also, the Jul S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index rose 3.95% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.60% y/y and the largest increase in 19 months.

Dovish Fed comments on Tuesday were positive for gold demand as a store of value. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said, "it will take more time" for the U.S. economy to recover and that employment in the U.S. likely won't return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. Also, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said it'll be appropriate to keep interest rates near zero until the economy in on track to achieve maximum employment and inflation averaging 2% over time, which will take until late 2022 or "sometime in 2023."

Deflation concerns in Europe are dovish for ECB policy and bullish for gold prices. German Sep CPI (EU harmonized) fell -0.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 5-1/2 years.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 33.605 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 1.007 million.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,451.34 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 2-month low Friday, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



9/23/2020

Precious Metals Plunge As Strength In The Dollar Sparks Heavy Long Liquidation Pressure

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed down -39.2 (-2.05%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -1.418 (-5.78%).

Precious metals prices on Wednesday settled sharply lower with gold at a 2-month low and silver at a 1-3/4 month low. A rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high on Wednesday fueled heavy long liquidation of precious metals. Also, fund liquidation of long silver positions is hammering silver prices after long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 1-3/4 month low on Tuesday. 

Wednesday's global manufacturing data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Sep Markit manufacturing PMI rose +0.4 to 53.5, right on expectations, and the fastest pace of expansion in 20 months. Also, the Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI rose +2.0 to 53.7, stronger than expectations of +0.2 to 51.9, and the fastest pace of expansion in 2 years. In addition, the Japan Sep Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to a 7-month high of 47.3.

Fed officials on Wednesday signaled that they favor additional debt-fueled fiscal stimulus measures, which is supportive for gold demand as a store of value. Cleveland Fed President Mester said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy "is still in a deep hole," and more fiscal support will be needed for recovery. Also, Fed Vice Chair Clarida said, "additional fiscal support will likely be needed" to support the economy, and the Fed "won't consider" an interest rate increase until it achieves 2% inflation for at least a few months as well as full employment.

Gold has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 31.850 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 976,000.

Precious metals have continued safe-haven support from heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of a no-deal Brexit at year-end.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,451.34 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 1-3/4 month low Tuesday, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.

Gold Retreats After The Dollar Rallies On Hawkish Fed Comments...It would be nice to see .999 silver bullion retrace to $15.00ish per ounce, down from $30.00ish per ounce.

Precious metals prices on Tuesday settled mixed. A rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high and hawkish Fed comments weighed on gold prices Tuesday, while better-than-expected U.S. economic news was positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. 

Gold prices gave up an early advance Tuesday as the dollar index rallied to a 1-3/4 month high after Chicago Fed President Evans said, "We could start raising interest rates before we start averaging 2% in inflation."

Tuesday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Aug existing home sales rose +2.4% m/m to 6.00 million, right on expectations and the highest in 13-1/2 years. Also, the Sep Richmond Fed manufacturing survey current conditions index unexpectedly rose +3 to a 2-year high of 21, stronger than expectations for a decline to 12.

Comments on Tuesday from ECB Executive Board member Panetta were bullish for gold demand as a store of value when he said he is worried about the sheer size of the downside risks to the Eurozone economy and that he supports preemptively adding monetary stimulus to fend off the risk of the economy worsening.

Gold also has support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 31.530 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 970,000.

Precious metals still have safe-haven support on heightened U.S. political tensions, U.S/China tensions, and the risks of no-deal Brexit.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,451.34 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 1-1/2 month low Monday, down from Aug's record high of 897.10 million troy ounces.



9/17/2020

Gold And Silver Fall To 1-Week Lows On Long Liquidation After Central Banks Fail To Boost Stimulus

Precious metals prices this morning tumbled to 1-week lows. Long liquidation in metals knocked prices lower after global central banks failed to signal that they would boost stimulus measures. Losses were limited by a decline in the dollar along with weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. 

Gold opened lower today on Wednesday afternoon's comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said the Fed is "satisfied" with the current size and shape of its asset purchase program, which dashed hopes that the Fed might expand its QE program.

Gold prices fell further today after the BOJ failed to boost its stimulus measures and instead upgraded its economic assessment. The BOJ at today's policy meeting kept its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and left the yield target and asset purchases unchanged. The BOJ also upgraded its economic assessment for the first time since the Covid pandemic began by saying the economy had started to pick up, with activity resuming gradually.

Today's weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data was supportive for gold but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -33,000 to 860,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 850,000. Also, Aug housing starts fell -5.1% to 1.416 million, weaker than expectations of 1.488 million. In addition, Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -0.9% to 1.470 million, weaker than expectations of an increase to 1.512 million.

Dovish ECB comments today bolstered speculation the ECB may expand stimulus measures, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said Eurozone inflation has "persistently lingered too low, and there is a risk that this trend will continue." Also, ECB Vice President Guindos said the ECB "watches very closely the evolution of the exchange rate and its impact on inflation and our target for price stability."

A negative factor for industrial metals demand and silver prices was today's European economic data that showed Eurozone Aug new car registrations fell -18.9% y/y to 769,525, the eighth consecutive month that registrations have declined and a sign of weak auto sales.

Gold prices garnered support today as a store of value after the 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1-month low of 0.157% when the BOE said that policymakers discussed negative interest rates at today's policy meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was briefed today on how such a policy could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium interest rates. The BOE said it would work with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and "will begin structured engagement on the operational considerations" for negative interest rates in Q4 of this year.

Gold prices still have safe-haven support on heightened U.S/China tensions and risks of no-deal Brexit.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 30.191 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 946,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,412.84 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 1-1/4 month low Monday. Long silver positions in ETFs had risen to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces on Aug 25.


9/16/2020

Gold Climbs To A 2-Week High On Dollar Weakness And Lower Global Bond Yields

Precious metals prices this morning are moderately higher with gold at a 2-week high. A weak dollar is spurring gains in metals prices along with lower global bond yields. Gold also rallied on dovish ECB comments and the outlook for a dovish outcome to today's 2-day FOMC meeting. Early strength in stocks this morning is limiting gains on reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. 

Today's weak U.S. retail sales data was supportive for gold and negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Aug retail sales rose +0.6% m/m and +0.7% ex-autos m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +1.0% m/m ex-autos.

Gold prices also have support on expectations for the FOMC to maintain its dovish monetary stance after today's 2-day FOMC meeting. The FOMC is unanimously expected to leave its key policy variables unchanged, with its funds rate target range at 0.00%/0.25% and its QE program at $120 billion per month. Also, post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell today will be parsed for any clues on future Fed policy intentions.

Dovish ECB comments today lowered bond yields and fueled speculation the ECB may expand stimulus measures, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.0 bp today to -0.499%, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -1.5 bp to 0.664%. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said the ECB "stands ready to act if the incoming data is not consistent with the objective of our emergency measures to close the inflation gap that has emerged as a result of the pandemic." Also, ECB Governing Council member Hernandez de Cos said the ECB will continue to monitor the euro exchange rate and can't rule out more ECB stimulus in the future.

Silver prices also garnered support today after the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) upgraded its global growth outlook as it forecast global 2020 GDP will contract -4.5%, less than a -6.0% forecast in June.

Gold prices still have safe-haven support on heightened U.S/China tensions and risks of no-deal Brexit.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 29.788 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 940,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,412.75 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 1-1/4 month low Monday. Long silver positions in ETFs had risen to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces on Aug 25.

Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded

They say patience is a virtue.

Well, if anyone is virtuous these days, it has to be silver bulls.

They also say good things come to those who wait. I believe those good things will be comingin spades.

Silver reached just shy of $50 back in April 2011. A decade later, were still just barely above half that level.

But thats all about to change.

Since bottoming in March, gold has rocketed to a new all-time high near $2,070 in early August, up 40%.

But silvers trough-to-peak gains have put golds to shame. The white metal bottomed in March near $12, then soared to a $29 peak, also in early August, for a blistering 140% gain in just 4 months.

When silver really gets going, it can surprise even the most ardent of silver bulls. And odds are its going to go on several more runs like this in the future.

Heres whats making this metal tick, and why what lies ahead for silver is going to surprise us all.

Silvers Monetary Side

Its widely accepted that silver is both an industrial metal and a monetary metal. But now that precious metals are in a secular bull market, silvers monetary side is likely to have an outsized impact.

If we look at how silver compares to gold in bull runs, it turns out silver has outperformed five of the last six times.

Thats likely going to happen again this time, and the main driver will be investment demand.

According to the Silver Institutes Annual World Silver Survey, silver investment demand was up 12% in 2019 over the previous year. The Institute recently reported that in the first half of 2020, investors hoarded 10% more silver than in H1 2019, mostly through buying silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs). As a result, ETPs have been setting successive record high levels of holdings this year.



9/14/2020

Precious Metals Climb On A Weak Dollar And Lower Global Bond Yields

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up +21.9 (+1.12%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) is up +0.543 (+2.02%).

Precious metals prices this morning are moving higher on a weaker dollar. Also, lower global bond yields are boosting demand for gold as a store of value. Gold prices are being undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with today's rally in stock prices and vaccine optimism. 

The likelihood that the Fed will maintain its overly easy monetary policies at this Tuesday's and Wednesday's FOMC meeting is also underpinning metals prices today.

Lower global bond yields are boosting demand for gold today as a store of value. The Japanese 10-year JGB bond yield fell to a 5-week low today of 0.109% on expectations that new Japanese Prime Minister Suga will maintain outgoing Prime Minister Abe's ultra-easy "Abenomics" monetary policy. The 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low today of 0.649% on reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell to a 1-week low today of 1.655%.

Speculation the ECB may boost stimulus measures to fight the risks of deflation is another bullish factor for gold. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said, "the inflation outlook is a concern" as the core inflation level is "clearly below our target." Also, ECB President Lagarde said the recent appreciation of the euro has partly offset the positive impact that the ECB's stimulus had in boosting inflation and that the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of their instruments if needed.

Gold prices still have safe-haven support on heightened U.S/China tensions and risks of no-deal Brexit.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 29.259 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 929,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose for the twelfth consecutive session to a new record high of 3,412.75 metric tons (data since 2002). However, liquidation of long silver positions has emerged with long silver positions in ETFs falling to a 1-month low last Thursday. Long silver positions in ETFs had risen to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces on Aug 25.



9/10/2020

Gold And Silver Rally To 1-Week Highs On Dollar Weakness And Continued Fund Buying

Precious metals prices this morning rose to 1-week highs on a weak dollar and continued fund buying of gold. Gains were limited on higher global bond yields along with strength in stocks. 

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose for the eleventh consecutive session to a new record high of 3,412.08 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces Aug 25.

Today's global economic data was mixed for precious metals. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims were unchanged at 884,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 850,000. Conversely, Japan Jul core machine orders rose +6.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.0% m/m, and the biggest increase in 8 months.

Silver prices garnered support on today's action by the ECB to revise up its 2020 Eurozone GDP forecast to -8.0% versus a prior estimate of -8.7%, which is positive for industrial metals demand.

Today's U.S. producer price data was stronger than expected and is positive for gold demand as a hedge against inflation. U.S. Aug PPI ex food & energy rose +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y.

Strength in stocks this morning is curbing the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Higher global bond yields are also negative for gold demand as a store of value. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high today of -0.429%, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 3-session high of 0.720%.

Gold prices still have safe-haven support on heightened U.S./China tensions and risks of no-deal Brexit.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 28.076 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 909,000.



Precious Metals Close Higher On Dollar Weakness And Ramped-Up U.S./China Tensions

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed up +11.7 (+0.60%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed up +0.092 (+0.34%).

Precious metals prices on Wednesday moved higher on a weaker dollar, simmering U.S./China tensions, and heightened risks of no-deal Brexit. Gains in gold were limited on a sharp rally in stocks, which curbs the safe-haven demand for gold and positive ECB comments that may reduce the need for additional stimulus measures. 

Heightened U.S./China tensions are bullish for the safe-haven demand for gold but bearish for trade prospects and industrial metals demand. President Trump said he intends to curb the U.S. economic relationship with China and threatens to punish any U.S. companies that create jobs overseas and to forbid those that do business with China from winning federal contracts. In addition, the U.S on Tuesday announced that is has banned imports from three companies in China's Xinjiang region over China's alleged repression of the Uighur Muslim minority group. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency said it would also ban imports from six other Chinese companies that operate in the cotton, textile, and apparel industries by the end of the year for using "convict labor and forced labor to produce the garments it manufactures."

Gold prices have support on heightened risks of no-deal Brexit. UK Prime Minister Johnson said that he "won't back down" on his threat to walk away from Brexit talks without a new trade deal. The Brexit talks have been at an impasse for months, and the UK needs to secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of this year or tariffs, quotas, and customs checks will be reimposed on the UK economy.

A bearish factor for gold was Wednesday's Bloomberg report that said ECB policymakers have become more confident in their forecasts for an economic recovery in the Eurozone and may not need any additional stimulus measures. ECB officials with knowledge of the matter said that the ECB at this Thursday's policy meeting would revise up its Eurozone GDP and private consumption forecasts for this year. The officials also said that in their view, additional stimulus beyond the current 1.35 trillion-euro ($1.6 trillion) emergency asset-purchase program doesn't appear warranted from their current perspective.

Wednesday's global economic data was mixed for metals. The U.S. Jul JOLTS job openings rose +617,000 to a 5-month high of 6.618 million, stronger than expectations of 6.000 million. Conversely, Japan Aug machine tool orders fell -23.3% y/y, the twenty-third consecutive month that orders have declined but the smallest drop in 1-1/2 years.

Slack global price pressures are negative for gold demand as an inflation hedge after China Aug PPI fell -2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.9% y/y.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 27.776 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 902,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,408.02 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces Aug 25.



9/8/2020

Precious Metals Close At 1-Week Lows On Dollar Strength And A Better-Than-Expected U.S. Payrolls Report

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Friday closed down -3.5 (-0.18%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -0.163 (-0.61%).

Gold and silver prices on Friday dropped to 1-week lows on dollar strength and a stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report. Also, a sharp decline in stocks for a second day on Friday prompted some investors to liquidate long metals positions to cover stock margin calls. 

The dollar index rose to a 1-week high Friday on a stronger-than-expected monthly U.S. payrolls report, which shows that the economic recovery is continuing and is negative for safe-haven demand of precious metals. U.S. Aug nonfarm payrolls rose +1.371 million, stronger than expectations of +1.350 million. Also, the Aug unemployment rate fell -1.8 points to a 5-month low of 8.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 9.8%.

Weakness in Eurozone economic data on Friday is supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German Jul factory orders rose +2.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +5.0% m/m. Also, the German Aug Markit construction PMI fell -1.7 to 48.0, the sixth consecutive month the index has remained in contraction below 50.0.

Losses in metals prices were limited Friday as a sharp sell-off in stocks for a second day has spurred some safe-haven buying of precious metals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both fell to 3-week lows on Friday.

Signs of stronger gold demand in India, the world's second-largest consumer of bullion, is supportive of gold prices. India Aug gold imports climbed to 35.5 tons, up +39% m/m and +140% y/y.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 26.521 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 874,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,401.55 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces last Tuesday.

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) low global bond yields, which boost demand for gold as a store of value, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs at all-time highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, end-2020 Brexit risks, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, and (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the plunge in global economic activity from the Covid pandemic.



9/5/2020

Precious Metals Close At 1-Week Lows On Dollar Strength And A Better-Than-Expected U.S. Payrolls Report

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Friday closed down -3.5 (-0.18%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -0.163 (-0.61%).

Gold and silver prices on Friday dropped to 1-week lows on dollar strength and a stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report. Also, a sharp decline in stocks for a second day on Friday prompted some investors to liquidate long metals positions to cover stock margin calls. 

The dollar index rose to a 1-week high Friday on a stronger-than-expected monthly U.S. payrolls report, which shows that the economic recovery is continuing and is negative for safe-haven demand of precious metals. U.S. Aug nonfarm payrolls rose +1.371 million, stronger than expectations of +1.350 million. Also, the Aug unemployment rate fell -1.8 points to a 5-month low of 8.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 9.8%.

Weakness in Eurozone economic data on Friday is supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German Jul factory orders rose +2.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +5.0% m/m. Also, the German Aug Markit construction PMI fell -1.7 to 48.0, the sixth consecutive month the index has remained in contraction below 50.0.

Losses in metals prices were limited Friday as a sharp sell-off in stocks for a second day has spurred some safe-haven buying of precious metals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both fell to 3-week lows on Friday.

Signs of stronger gold demand in India, the world's second-largest consumer of bullion, is supportive of gold prices. India Aug gold imports climbed to 35.5 tons, up +39% m/m and +140% y/y.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 26.521 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 874,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,401.55 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces last Tuesday.

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) low global bond yields, which boost demand for gold as a store of value, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund and retail buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs at all-time highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, end-2020 Brexit risks, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, and (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the plunge in global economic activity from the Covid pandemic.



9/3/2020

IN 2024 SILVER WILL BE WORTH 1500$/OZ., WHICH HAS SILVER 50X FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY 2024. $27.00 SilverUSD divided by $1,500 =50X! Gold bullion wants $12,500 goldUSD in 2024 = M1 up big time = super inflation, hyperinflation and also stagflation folks. Gold bullion price action like did in 1979 - 1980 is upon us? Gold bullion to M1 ratio is whats really happening in the .999 gold bullion and .999 silver bullion market. What is the better position gold to $12,500 in 2024 or silver to $1,500 in 2024? I'll take .999 silver bullion to $1,500 as a better trade than gold!

Precious Metals Slip On Dollar Strength And Reduced Inflation Expectations

Metals prices this morning are lower on a stronger dollar, although gold is seeing support from a slump in stocks and weakness in global bond yields. Lower inflation expectations and mixed global economic data are also weighing on metals prices.

Today's global economic data was mixed for precious metals. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -130,000 to a 5-1/4 month low of 881,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations for a decline to 950,000. Also, the Eurozone Aug Markit composite PMI was revised upward to 51.9 from the previously reported 51.6. Conversely, the U.S. Aug ISM services index declined by -1.2 to 56.9, slightly weaker than expectations for a decline to 57.0. Also, Eurozone July retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate dropped to a 1-1/2 week low today of 1.662%, which curbs demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

A plunged of about -3% in the S&P 500 and -5% in the Nasdaq 100 today to 1-week lows has sparked safe-haven buying of gold. Also, an increase in global stimulus measures is positive for gold demand as a store of value after the French government today launched a 100 billion-euro ($118 billion) stimulus plan to counter the negative effects of the Covid pandemic and limit the massive rise in unemployment. The 2-year plan includes wage subsidies, tax cuts for businesses, and funding for environmental projects.

Speculation that the ECB may consider additional easing measures to keep the euro from appreciating is also supportive of gold prices. The Financial Times reported today that several members of the ECB's Governing Council are concerned that the recent rally in EUR/USD to a 2-1/4 year high will weigh on exports and bring down prices.

Lower global bond yields are also bullish for gold prices. The 10-year T-note yield today dropped to a 3-week low of 0.602%, and the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-1/2 week low today of -0.503%.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 26.214 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 868,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,398.88 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces last Tuesday.




9/2/2020

Precious Metals Close Lower On Dollar Strength And Record-High U.S. Stocks...anti-inflation assets like precious metals and #Bitcoin #BTC trading lower...

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed down -34.2 (-1.73%), and Dec silver (SIZ20) closed down -1.250 (-4.36%).

Metals prices on Wednesday settled sharply lower. A stronger dollar weighed on metals prices Wednesday along with a rally in U.S. stocks to new record highs, which reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Dovish Fed comments and mixed U.S. economic data were supportive factors for metals.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data was mixed for precious metals. The Aug ADP employment report of +428,000 was weaker than expectations of +1.000 million. Conversely, July factory orders rose +6.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +6.1% m/m.

Fed comments on Wednesday were dovish for Fed policy and bullish for gold. Richmond Fed President Barkin said the recovery in the U.S. labor market is progressing at a slower pace than had been envisioned, and the economy will need sustained monetary support. Also, New York Fed President Williams said lower trend inflation is seen across advanced economies, and a moderate overshoot of the Fed's 2% inflation goal is desirable. Finally, Cleveland Fed President Mester said, "we're going to need support both on monetary policy and fiscal policy as it's going to take some time to get into a sustainable recovery."

European economic concerns are bullish for gold and negative for industrial metals demand after German July retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 25.943 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 862,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,393.22 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces last Tuesday.



8/28/2020

Metals Fall Back From 1-Week Highs And Close Lower On Fed Chair Powell's Inflation Comments

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Thursday closed down -19.9 (-1.02%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed down -0.424 (-1.54%).

Metals prices on Thursday whipsawed lower from 1-week highs on comments from Fed Chair Powell. A recovery in the dollar also weighed on metals prices, as did record-high stock prices. Thursday's U.S. economic data was mixed for metals prices.

Gold and silver initially rallied to 1-week highs Thursday morning on the news the Fed will allow a faster pace of inflation after Fed Chair Powell said the FOMC would target "inflation that averages 2% over time" and will aim to bring inflation above the 2% target following periods when inflation runs below that level. However, metals shed their gains and turned lower when Fed Chair Powell said the Fed would act "if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal."

Metals prices also retreated as the dollar index recovered from its worst levels Thursday. Also, a rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to new record highs on Thursday curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Gold prices recovered from their worst levels Thursday on comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan, who said the Fed's new framework says prices can run "moderately" above its 2% target and that the FOMC must be open to quicker inflation as jobs return.

Comments on Thursday from ECB Executive Board member and chief economist Lane were bullish for gold when he said that "there's not going to be a return to normal levels of economic activity for a considerable period," and the ECB "is ready" to add more monetary stimulus if needed.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 24.371 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 830,000. However, the 5-day average of new U.S. Covid infections has dropped to a 2-month low of about 38,000 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, down from July's peak near 70,000 cases.

Thursday's U.S. economic data was mostly bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Q2 GDP was revised upward to -31.7% (q/q annualized) from -32.9%, stronger than expectations of -32.5%. Also, Jul pending home sales rose +5.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.0% m/m. Conversely, weekly initial unemployment claims fell -98,000 to 1.006 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.000 million.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces on Tuesday.



8/26/2020

Gold Rebounds From A 2-Week Low And Settles Higher As Global Governments Boost Stimulus

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Wednesday closed up +29.4 (+1.53%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +1.176 (+4.48%).

Metals prices on Wednesday recovered from early losses and rallied sharply on the outlook for governments to boost stimulus measures. Gold prices initially tumbled to a 2-week low Wednesday morning on higher global bond yields and a stronger dollar but rebounded and settled higher.

New debt-fueled stimulus measures by governments around the world are supportive of gold demand as a store of value. The German government late Tuesday allocated an additional 10 billion euros ($11.8 billion) to provide job subsidies or "Kurzarbeit" until the end of 2021. Also, French Prime Minister Castex on Wednesday said that he would provide details for a 100 billion euro stimulus plan for France next week.

Comments on Wednesday from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel were bullish for gold when he said, "there is considerable uncertainty as to the precise level of the reversal rate and current estimates suggest that the ECB has not reached the effective lower bound."

Gold also has support on expectations that Fed Chair Powell will signal the Fed will maintain its extremely easy monetary policies when he speaks Thursday at the Fed's virtual Jackson Hole policy conference.

Precious metals prices have ongoing support from the ongoing Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. The Covid virus has now infected 24.105 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 824,000. However, the 5-day average of new U.S. Covid infections has dropped to a 2-month low of about 38,000 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, down from July's peak near 70,000 cases.

Higher global bond yields are negative for gold demand as a store of value. The 10-year UK gilt yield jumped to a 2-1/2 month high Wednesday of 0.313%, the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-1/2 week high Wednesday of 0.719%, and the 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-1/2 week high of -0.399%.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. July durable goods orders rose +11.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +4.8% m/m. Also, July durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +2.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.0% m/m. In addition, July capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft, a proxy for capital spending, rose +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.7% m/m.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 897.10 million troy ounces on Tuesday.



8/24/2020

Precious Metals Close Lower After U.S. Stock Indexes Jump To Record Highs On Pandemic Optimism

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Monday closed down -7.8 (-0.40%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed down -0.125 (-0.47%).

Metals prices on Monday posted moderate losses on a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand due to a rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes to new record highs.

Stocks rallied Monday on optimism about Covid treatments along with signs that the Trump administration may fast-track vaccines and treatments for Covid.

Monday's U.S. economic data was supportive for gold prices but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The July Chicago Fed U.S. national activity index fell -4.15 to 1.18, weaker than expectations of 3.70.

Losses in gold were limited Monday by expectations that Fed Chair Powell will signal the Fed will maintain its extremely easy monetary policies when he speaks Thursday at the Fed's virtual Jackson Hole policy conference.

Precious metals prices still have support from the ongoing Covid pandemic that has curbed global growth prospects and prompted the world's central banks to maintain or even expand their QE programs, which is bullish for gold demand as a store of value. France on Sunday reported 4,897 new Covid cases on Sunday, the most since the previous peak in mid-April. The Covid virus has now infected 23.637 million persons globally, with deaths exceeding 813,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 893.743 million troy ounces on Aug 14.



8/21/2020

Precious Metals See Continued Selling On Dollar Strength

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) today is down -2.8 (-0.14%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -0.437 (-1.61%).

Dec gold and Sep silver today extended the sharp sell-offs that started on Wednesday. Dec gold posted a 1-1/2 week low today before recovering somewhat. Sep silver fell to a 4-session low and remains sharply lower.

Precious metals prices are seeing weakness on today's +0.5% rally in the dollar index, which was sparked by weakness in the euro on poor Eurozone PMI reports. The PMI reports were also bearish for industrial metals prices and silver since the PMI reports suggested that the Eurozone economic recovery is losing ground.

Today's preliminary-August Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell by -0.1 to 51.7, which was weaker than expectations for a +0.9 increase to 52.7. Meanwhile, the Eurozone services PMI fell by -4.6 to 50.1, which was much weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 54.5.

Precious metals prices in August have seen weakness on long liquidation pressure after the sharp rally seen since the beginning of the year due to the pandemic and the Fed's extraordinarily easy monetary policy.

Precious metals prices are also seeing some weakness from falling U.S. Covid infection rates. The 5-day average of new U.S. Covid infections has dropped to a 7-week low of about 43,000 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, down from July's peak near 70,000 cases.

Precious metals prices are seeing some safe-haven support today from a sharp sell-off in European stocks and the mildly lower trade in Sep S&P E-mini. The Euro-Stoxx 50 index today is down -1.20%.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 893.743 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/19/2020

Precious Metals See Some Long Liquidation Pressure As Dollar Stabilizes

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) today is down -21.6 (-1.07%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -0.390 (-1.39%).

Precious metals prices are lower today on some long liquidation pressure after the sharp rally seen in the past week that produced Tuesday's 1-week high in Dec gold and Sep silver. Precious metals are seeing some downward pressure after the dollar index today stabilized above Tuesday's 2-1/4 year low. The weak dollar has been a key driver of the recent strength in precious metals prices.

Precious metals prices are also seeing some downward pressure as the U.S. Covid statistics improve, which is hawkish for Fed policy. The 5-day average of new U.S. Covid infections has dropped to a 7-week low of 40,417 cases, according to Johns Hopkins, down from July's peak near 70,000 cases.

Precious metals prices have continued support from U.S./Chinese tensions, which produced a sharp -1.24% sell-off in the Shanghai Composite stock index earlier today. President Trump on Tuesday said that he was the one who called off Saturday's 6-month review of the U.S./China phase-one trade deal because "I don't want to talk to China right now." However, Mr. Trump still seems to support the phase-one trade deal since he has said on several occasions in recent days that China is buying a lot of U.S. goods.

Trump administration officials were also out in force earlier this week, insisting that the phase-one trade deal is intact. However, tensions remain high as the Trump administration on Tuesday sent a letter to universities encouraging their endowments to divest Chinese stocks in the event that they are delisted due to tighter listing rules.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 893.743 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/18/2020

Precious Metals Continue Higher On U.S./China Tensions And Weak Dollar

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Tuesday closed +14.40 (+0.72%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed +0.408 (+1.47%).

Precious metals on Tuesday rallied due to the fairly sharp -0.6% sell-off in the dollar index to a new 2-1/4 year low. Precious metals prices also saw continued support from ongoing U.S./China trade tensions. Industrial metals prices saw support from Tuesday's strong U.S. housing starts report, which implied stronger demand for metals used in homebuilding.

Precious metals prices continued to see safe-haven demand from increased U.S./Chinese tensions after Saturday's U.S./China 6-month review of the phase-one trade deal was indefinitely postponed. In addition, the Trump administration on Monday added 38 Huawei affiliates in 21 countries to the U.S. economic blacklist, seeking to more thoroughly eliminate Huawei equipment from global 5G networks and restrict Huawei's access to chips.

Industrial metals prices saw support from Tuesday's strong U.S. July housing starts report of +22.6% to 1.496 million, which was much stronger than expectations for a modest rise to +1.245 million. Housing starts would need to rise by only another +8% to match the 13-year pre-pandemic high seen in January. Also, July building permits rose +18.8% to 1.495 million units, which was much stronger than expectations for a rise to 1.326 million and was a positive leading indicator for housing starts going into late summer and autumn.

The ongoing Covid pandemic continues to generate safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 22.1 million globally, with deaths exceeding 778,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 893.743 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/17/2020 

I'm adding to my gold position, look at the poor country of Turkey, Bank runs, people selling their houses and cars to panic purchase .999 Gold Bullion, I guess better late then never, god help them.

Warren Buffet recently describes .999 gold bullion as not being a good investment because gold bullion doesn't pay any interest or dividends. No shit, really. Buffet more recently dumps his airlines stocks and now most recently dumps Goldman Sachs (GS) stock along with financial stocks, Wells Fargo (WFC)? 

Warren Buffett says bitcoin is a 'gambling device' with 'a lot of frauds connected with it' ... Bitcoin hasn't produced anything,” Buffett says. Buffett had previously called bitcoin “rat poison squared,” and Berkshire's vice chairman Charlie Munger said trading in cryptocurrencies is “just dementia.”May 4, 2019

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging. 

Berkshire took a new position in Barrick, buying 20.9 million shares, or 1.2% of the company’s outstanding stock, with a current market value of $565 million, according to a regulatory filing on Friday. The filing shows moves made by Buffett or his two investing deputies, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler. 

In the past, Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire, cautioned against investing in the metal because it’s not productive like a farm or a company. Now, gold miners are benefiting from surging bullion prices that are boosting profit margins as costs of production have steadied, making them increasingly attractive investments. Large miners including Barrick and Newmont Corp. have been hoping to woo back generalists who fled the sector years ago.

Paulson & Co., run by billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, also added to its holdings in Barrick. 

Barrick’s shares rose 7.4% as of 5:32 p.m. in after-hours trading in New York.

Buffett might’ve been averse to gold in the past, but he has bet big on metals before. In 1997, he bought 129.7 million ounces of silver, banking on demand exceeding production and re-use. He bought most of it for less than $6 an ounce and sold it soon after, he said nine years later. “I was the silver king there for a while,” he said at the time.

The jump in gold prices has boosted investors’ willingness to pump billions into the industry, with precious-metals miners raising $2.4 billion in secondary equity offerings during the second quarter. Gold has gotten a boost as Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and a plunge in real government bond yields lifted demand for the metal, which doesn’t offer interest.

Read More: Barrick to Play It Safe Even as Wave of Pandemic Aid Boosts Gold

Filings released this month don’t include hedge funds’ current position, which may have changed since the end of the quarter. Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in the U.S. must file a Form 13F within 45 days of each quarter’s end to list those stocks as well as options and convertible bonds. The filings don’t show non-U.S. securities, holdings that aren’t publicly traded, or cash.

Precious Metals Close Sharply Higher On U.S./China Tensions And Weaker Dollar

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Monday closed +48.90 (+2.51%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +1.578 (+6.05%).

Precious metals on Monday rallied sharply on support from U.S./China trade tensions, a weaker dollar, and short-covering from last week's 2-1/2 lows. Industrial metals prices saw support from Monday's record high in the U.S. homebuilder confidence index, which implies stronger demand for metals used in homebuilding.

Precious metals prices on Monday saw safe-haven demand from increased U.S./Chinese tensions after Saturday's U.S./China 6-month review of the phase-one trade deal was indefinitely postponed. That review was expected to be a teleconference on Saturday among U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Scheduling delays were cited as the reason for the postponement, but the markets suspect there is a backstory that involves larger U.S./Chinese tensions. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Monday refused to answer a question about why Saturday's meeting was postponed.

Meanwhile, there was a new move on Monday by the Trump administration against China. The Commerce Department on Monday added 38 Huawei affiliates in 21 countries to the U.S. economic blacklist, seeking to more thoroughly eliminate Huawei equipment from global 5G networks and restrict Huawei's access to chips.

Industrial metals prices saw support from Monday's +6 point increase to 78 in the NAHB housing market index, which was much stronger than expectations of +2 to 74. The index matched its record 35-year high, which was originally posted in 1998 (data since 1985). On the negative side for industrial metals prices, however, was Monday's -13.5 point drop in the Aug Empire manufacturing index to 3.7, which was weaker than expectations for a smaller -2.2 point decline to 15.0.

The ongoing Covid pandemic continues to generate safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 21.8 million globally, with deaths exceeding 770,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 887.668 million troy ounces last Thursday.



8/14/2020

Precious Metals Fall On Reduced Economic Concerns With Mostly Better-Than-Expected U.S. Economic Data

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -20.1 (-1.02%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -1.003 (-3.62%).

Precious metals this morning are moving lower as mostly better-than-expected U.S. economic data eases economic concerns and has sparked long liquidation in precious metals. Also, a decline in U.S. inflation expectations is weighing on gold prices. Losses in metals were limited by to a weak dollar and Covid concerns.

Today's U.S economic data was mostly better than expected and was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver. U.S. July retail sales ex-autos rose +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.3% m/m. Also, July manufacturing production rose +3.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +3.0% m/m. In addition, the Aug University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 72.8, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 72.0. Conversely, U.S. July retail sales rose by only +1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.1% m/m.

Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data was supportive of gold but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. China's July industrial production rose +4.8% y/y, unchanged from June and weaker than expectations of +5.2% y/y. Also, China's July retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% y/y.

The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate today is down -2.2 bp at 1.654%, as it retreats from Thursday's 6-1/2 month high of 1.695%, which is negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation.

Concern that the Covid pandemic is worsening is supportive for gold prices but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Germany added 1,422 new Covid cases today, the most since May 1, and the head of France's Health Agency said the pandemic situation in his country is worsening. Also, the UK today added France, the Netherlands, and Malta to its list of countries from which people arriving have to quarantine for 14 days. The Covid pandemic continues to negatively impact global economic growth and is undercutting energy demand. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 21.11 million globally, with deaths exceeding 758,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 887.668 million troy ounces Thursday.



Precious Metals Fall On Reduced Economic Concerns With Mostly Better-Than-Expected U.S. Economic Data = Buy the .999 Silver Bullion dip?

Precious metals this morning are moving lower as mostly better-than-expected U.S. economic data eases economic concerns and has sparked long liquidation in precious metals. Also, a decline in U.S. inflation expectations is weighing on gold prices. Losses in metals were limited by to a weak dollar and Covid concerns.

Today's U.S economic data was mostly better than expected and was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver. U.S. July retail sales ex-autos rose +1.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.3% m/m. Also, July manufacturing production rose +3.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +3.0% m/m. In addition, the Aug University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 72.8, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 72.0. Conversely, U.S. July retail sales rose by only +1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +2.1% m/m.

Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data was supportive of gold but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. China's July industrial production rose +4.8% y/y, unchanged from June and weaker than expectations of +5.2% y/y. Also, China's July retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% y/y.

The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate today is down -2.2 bp at 1.654%, as it retreats from Thursday's 6-1/2 month high of 1.695%, which is negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation.

Concern that the Covid pandemic is worsening is supportive for gold prices but bearish for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Germany added 1,422 new Covid cases today, the most since May 1, and the head of France's Health Agency said the pandemic situation in his country is worsening. Also, the UK today added France, the Netherlands, and Malta to its list of countries from which people arriving have to quarantine for 14 days. The Covid pandemic continues to negatively impact global economic growth and is undercutting energy demand. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 21.11 million globally, with deaths exceeding 758,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Aug 6 rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 887.668 million troy ounces Thursday.



8/13/2020

Metals Climb On A Weaker Dollar And A Jump In Inflation Expectations

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up +2.4 (+0.14%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.761 (+2.93%).

Precious metals are moving higher today on a weaker dollar. Gold prices also found support on the increase in U.S. inflation expectations, while silver prices garnered support on better-than-expected U.S. labor market data. The strength in stocks today has limited the upside in precious metals prices.

The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate today rose to a 6-1/2 month high of 1.694%, which is positive for gold demand as a hedge against inflation.

Today's U.S. weekly jobless claims data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -228,000 to a 4-3/4 month low of 963,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 1.100 million. Also, weekly continuing claims fell -604,000 to 15.486 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 15.800 million.

Higher global bond yields are negative for gold prices after the 10-year T-note yield today climbed to a 1-1/4 month high of 0.693%. Also, the UK 10-year gilt yield jumped to a 1-3/4 month high today of 0.261%, and the 10- yield German bund yield rose to a 6-week high today of -0.403%.

Gold still has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 20.837 million globally, with deaths exceeding 748,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 883.637 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/11/2020

Metals Plunge With Gold At A 2-Week Low As Rising U.S. Producer Prices Sparks Long Liquidation In Gold

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is down -81.8 (-4.01%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -2.011 (-6.87%).

Precious metals this morning are sharply lower, with gold prices plunging to a 2-week low. Metals opened lower as stocks rallied after President Trump Monday night said he's "very seriously" considering a capital gains tax cut through an executive order. Metals then plummeted this morning after U.S. producer prices rose more than expected, which is hawkish for Fed policy and fueled a jump in T-note yields that sparked massive long liquidation in precious metals.

The 10-year T-Note yield today jumped to a 3-1/2 week high of 0.643%, which is negative for gold, after U.S. July core PPI rose +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and unch y/y, with the +0.5% m/m gain being the largest monthly increase in 1-3/4 years.

An improvement in German investor confidence pushed German bund yields higher today, which also led to long liquidation in gold. The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 2-week high today of -0.470% after the German Aug ZEW expectations of economic growth index unexpectedly rose +12.2 to a 16-1/2 year high of 71.5, stronger than expectations of -3.5 to 55.8.

Metals prices still have support on increased U.S./China tensions after the Trump administration announced a new rule in the U.S. Federal Register that imported goods produced in Hong Kong must be labeled as made in China as of Sep 25.

Gold still has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 20.281 million globally, with deaths exceeding 739,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 883.637 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/10/2020

Metals Rally Sharply After President Trump Boosts Stimulus And As U.S./China Tensions Intensify

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up +28.8 (+1.42%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +1.880 (+6.83%).

Precious metals this morning are sharply high after President Trump took executive action to boost stimulus. Metals extended their gains when U.S./China tensions intensified, which sparked flight-to-safety buying of precious metals. Metals fell back from their best levels after the S&P 500 rallied to a 5-1/2 month high, which curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Saturday's action by President Trump to take executive actions to extend financial aid boosted demand for gold as a store of value since extra stimulus involves boosting the national debt. President Trump signed four executive orders, including extending unemployment benefits, eviction protection, student loan relief, and a temporary payroll tax deferral as Congress remains at an impasse on passing a new virus relief package.

Metals prices extended their gains this morning as U.S./China tensions intensified after China's Foreign Ministry said today that it would sanction 11 U.S. officials "who behaved badly on Hong Kong-related issues" in a tit-for-tat response to last Friday's action by the U.S. to impose sanctions on 11 Chinese officials over their roles in curtailing political freedoms in Hong Kong.

Gold still has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 20.046 million globally, with deaths exceeding 734,000.

Today's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. June JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose +518,000 to 5.889 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations for a decline to 5.300 million.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 883.637 million troy ounces last Friday.



8/8/2020

Metals Close Lower As A Strong Dollar And Better-Than-Expected Economic Data Spark Long Liquidation, stay long .999 Gold bullion. Gold bullion wants $4,000 easy on a hyperinflation hedge. October market crash pending?; plus election right around the corner. No yield and negative interests rates equal most bullish for .999 gold and .999 silver bullion.

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Friday closed down by -41.4 (-2.00%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed down -0.860 (-3.03%).

Precious metals on Friday closed sharply lower as dollar strength and stronger-than-expected economic data sparked long liquidation in metals futures.

Friday's monthly U.S. payroll report showed improvement in the U.S. labor market that boosted the dollar and sparked long-liquidation in precious metals. U.S. July nonfarm payrolls rose +1.763 million, stronger than expectations of +1.480 million. Also, the July unemployment rate fell -0.9 to 10.2%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 10.6%.

Global economic data on Friday was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German June industrial production rose +8.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +8.2% m/m, and the largest increase since the data began in 1991. Also, German June exports rose +14.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +14.4% m/m, and the biggest increase since data for a reunified Germany began in 1990. In addition, China July exports unexpectedly rose +7.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.6% y/y and the biggest increase in 7 months.

The dollar still has support on the outlook for additional U.S. government stimulus measures. Lawmakers have yet to agree on a virus relief package. However, President Trump said he is ready to sign orders extending enhanced unemployment benefits and imposing a payroll tax holiday for employers and workers if lawmakers are unable to strike a deal.

Gold has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 19.293 million globally, with deaths exceeding 718,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,388.41 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 879.358 million troy ounces last Thursday.

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the Covid pandemic, (2) low global bond yields, which boost demand for gold as a store of value, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs at all-time highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the Covid pandemic, trade tensions, end-2020 Brexit risks, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, and (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the plunge in global economic activity from the Covid pandemic.



8/6/2020

Gold Soars To Fresh Record High And Silver Surges To 7-1/4 Year High On The Outlook For More Stimulus, $3,000 Gold next?

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up by +27.7 (+1.35%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +1.530 (+5.59%).

Precious metals this morning are up sharply for a third day, with Dec gold at a new contract high, Aug gold at a fresh all-time nearest-futures high, and silver at a 7-1/4 nearest-futures high. Bullish factors included a slumping dollar and expectations for more U.S. debt-fueled government stimulus.

U.S. lawmakers continue to struggle to agree on a compromise virus rescue package, which is expected to be substantially in excess of the Republican plan of $1 trillion and boost the U.S. national debt. Fitch, last Friday, put the U.S. debt rating on negative watch, citing a "deterioration in U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidating plan." Fitch said that it expects general U.S. government debt to exceed 130% of GDP by 2021.

Precious metals opened higher in overnight trading on comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said it's "clear that more fiscal support is needed to provide a bridge for households, small businesses and state and local municipalities that have borne the brunt of the economic shutdown until the recovery is sustainably in place."

Gold extended its gains this morning on dovish comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan, who said, "the economic rebound won't be as pronounced as it would have been because of the resurgence in the virus and our performance in managing the virus." Also, Richmond Fed President Barkin today said, "we have got a lot more people in trouble now" as the recovery in less steep and the downturn is longer.

Gold has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 19.006 million globally, with deaths exceeding 711,000.

Today's global economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -249,000 to a 4-1/2 month low of 1.196 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 1.400 million. Also, German June factory orders surged +27.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +10.1% m/m, and the largest increase since the data began in 1990. In addition, the UK July Markit/CIPS construction PMI rose +2.8 to 58.1, stronger than expectations of +1.7 to 57.0, and the fastest pace of expansion in 4-3/4 years.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,384.46 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 879.358 million troy ounces last Thursday.



8/4/2020

Gold Rallies To A New All-Time High On The Outlook For More Government Stimulus

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) this morning is up by+20.7 (+1.04%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.923 (+3.78%).

Precious metals this morning are higher as Dec gold posted a new contract high and nearest-futures Aug gold climbed to a new all-time high on the outlook for more U.S. government stimulus and debt. Silver prices rallied after U.S. factory orders rose more than expected. Gains in metals accelerated after the dollar erased an overnight rally and turned lower.

U.S. lawmakers remain deadlocked in their attempts to reach a compromise on a new pandemic rescue bill, although optimism improved this morning and gold prices surged after Senate Democrat Minority Leader Schumer said the talks were "moving in the right direction." A new pandemic bill add at least another $1 trillion to the U.S. national debt. Fitch last Friday put the U.S. debt rating on negative watch, citing a "deterioration in U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidating plan." Fitch said that it expects general U.S. government debt to exceed 130% of GDP by 2021.

Gold demand as a store of value increased today on comments from ECB Chief Economist Lane that suggest ECB asset purchases may continue for longer than expected. Mr. Lane warned that a global resurgence of Covid cases would weigh on consumers and businesses for some time, and "it will take a significant amount of time to recover from the pandemic shock fully, and why significant fiscal and monetary policy support is necessary."

Gold has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 18.476 million globally, with deaths exceeding 698,000.

Today's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. June factory orders rose +6.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +5.0% m/m.

Heightened U.S./China tensions are also boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after an editorial in the state-run China Daily published late Monday said U.S. demands for the sale of China's social media app TikTok to Microsoft is "theft," and China has plenty of ways to respond if the U.S. carries out its demands. President Trump, on Monday, said unless TikTok is sold to a U.S. company by September 15, it will be shut down.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,365.65 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 879.358 million troy ounces last Thursday.

 

8/3/2020

GolD Bullion getting it Done! 
Metals Close Higher With Gold At New Record High On The Outlook For More Government Stimulus = Hyperinflation!

Dec Comex gold (GCZ20) on Monday closed up by+0.4 (+0.02%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +0.201 (+0.83%).

Precious metals on Monday closed higher as Dec gold posted a new contract high, and the nearest-futures Aug gold contract posted a new record nearest-futures high. The outlook for additional government stimulus lifted metals prices Monday, with expectations for the U.S. to continue to ramp up its debt. Fitch last Friday put the U.S. debt rating on negative watch due to Fitch's expectations for U.S. debt to balloon and because Fitch said Washington has no credible plan to address dangerously high debt levels over the medium-term. President Trump is investigating whether he can unilaterally order stimulus due to deadlocked negotiations with Congress.

Gold prices fell back from their best levels Monday on a stronger dollar along with a rally in stocks.

Gold has safe-haven support from the Covid pandemic wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 18.259 million globally, with deaths exceeding 693,000.

Monday's global manufacturing data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. July ISM manufacturing index rose +1.6 to 54.2, stronger than expectations of +1.0 to 53.6, and the fastest pace of expansion in 16 months. Also, the Eurozone July Markit manufacturing PMI was revised upward to a 1-3/4 year high of 51.8 from the previously reported 51.1. In addition, the China July Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +1.6 to 52.8, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 51.1, and the fastest pace of expansion in 9 years.

Ramped-up U.S./China tensions are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after Secretary of State Pompeo said the Trump administration would announce measures shortly against "a broad array" of Chinese-owned software deemed to pose national security risks.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,356.51 metric tons (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 879.358 million troy ounces on Thursday.

 



7/31/2020

Gold Prices See New Record High As Safe-Haven Demand Continues

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) is up +20.5 (+1.06%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.773 (+3.31%).

Aug gold prices today reached a new record nearest-futures high, and silver is sharply higher. Precious metals prices are seeing support from continued weakness in the dollar, which fell to a new 2-year low today.

Precious metals prices are also seeing safe-haven demand as the federal unemployment bonus expires today, which will put a new hole in U.S. consumer income and spending and is dovish for Fed policy. There is also concern about the U.S. November election after President Trump tweeted on Thursday his idea that the election may need to be delayed.

Industrial metals prices received a boost from Thursday night's news that China's July national manufacturing PMI rose by +0.2 points to 51.1, which was better than the consensus for a -0.1 point drop to 50.8.

Industrial metals prices are also seeing underlying support from expectations for Congress by early August to pass a new stimulus bill, although negotiations are currently making little progress.

Gold prices were undercut by Thursday's news from the World Gold Council that India's gold consumption the first half of this year (Jan-Jun) plunged -56% y/y to 165.6 MT. India is the world's fourth-largest gold importer.

Gold has safe-haven support from the second Covid wave that is sweeping the U.S. and other areas of the world. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 17.213 million globally, with deaths exceeding 671,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,350.99 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 873.643 million ounces on Wednesday.



7/30/2020

Metals Fall Back As Demand Concerns Spark Long Liquidation

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is down -5.4 (-0.28%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -0.751 (-3.11%).

Metals prices this morning are weaker as demand concerns sparked long liquidation. Losses in gold were contained by dollar weakness and a slump in global equity markets, which boosted safe-haven demand for gold.

A sharp sell-off in global equity markets today is prompting investors to liquidate long gold positions to cover margin calls from stock losses.

Gold prices also fell back on concern about weak demand in India, the worlds' fourth-largest gold importer. Data today from the World Gold Council shows the India gold consumption the first half of this year (Jan-Jun) plunged -56% y/y to 165.6 MT.

Today's U.S economic data was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Q2 GDP shrank by a record -32.9% (q/q annualized), slightly better than expectations of -34.5% (q/q annualized). Q2 personal consumption fell a record -34.6%, weaker than expectations of -34.5%.

Global economic data today was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone June unemployment rate rose +0.1 to a 16-month high of 7.8%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 7.7%. Also, German Q2 GDP fell -10.1% q/q, weaker than expectations of -9.0% q/q, and the steepest pace of contraction since the data began for a reunified Germany in 1991.

A lack of global price pressures is bearish for gold demand as an inflation hedge. The U.S. Q2 PCE deflator fell -1.1% q/q annualized, weaker than expectations of -0.9% and the steepest pace of contraction since the data began in 1959. Also, the German July CPI was unchanged y/y, below expectations of +0.3% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 4 years.

Gold has safe-haven support from concern that the Covid pandemic is worsening. Florida reported a record of 253 deaths from the virus today, the third straight day of record deaths. Also, Germany reported 838 new virus infections today, a 6-week high, and Tokyo reported a record 367 Covid infections today. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 17.213 million globally, with deaths exceeding 671,000.

Weakness in global bond yields is also supportive for gold demand as a store of value. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a record low 0.072% today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 4-1/2 month low of 0.536%. Also, the German 10-year bund yield fell to a 2-1/4 month low today of -0.553%.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,350.99 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 873.643 million ounces on Wednesday.



7/29/2020

Metals Close Higher On Dollar Weakness And Dovish Fed

Metals prices on Wednesday closed with moderate gains on dollar weakness and expectations for the FOMC to maintain its dovish stance following Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Covid concerns also underpinned gold prices on Wednesday. Gains were limited by stronger stocks, which curbs the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Sustained dollar weakness is a major bullish factor for precious metals prices as the dollar index fell to a new 2-year low on Wednesday. Metals prices added to their gains Wednesday afternoon when the dollar extended its losses after the FOMC pledged to maintain ultra-low rates and continue asset purchases following Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. June pending home sales rose +16.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +15.0% m/m.

Gold has safe-haven support from concern that the Covid pandemic is worsening. California reported a record of 197 Covid deaths on Wednesday, and Florida reported a record of 216 deaths from the virus, the second straight day of record deaths. Also, China reported 101 new Covid cases Wednesday, up from 68 on Tuesday, and Japan reported a record 1,002 new Covid infections Wednesday as cases surged in Osaka and Tokyo. Confirmed cases of Covid have risen above 16.923 million globally, with deaths exceeding 664,000.

Comments on Wednesday from ECB Governing Council member Stournaras suggest he favors expanding QE and were bullish for gold. He said that Eurozone economic risks are "still to the downside," and an exit from the ECB's emergency asset-purchase program "will depend on the evolution of inflation mostly."

A bullish factor for silver is the outlook for shrinking supplies as the Silver Institute projects a small 2020 global silver deficit, the first in five years. The Silver Institute said that South American silver mines, where 40% of silver is produced, were shut down earlier this year because of the Covid pandemic. The Institute estimates a -13% y/y decline in 2020 South American silver mine production.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,349.53 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 868.245 million ounces on Friday.



7/28/2020

Gold's Luster Grows As Investors Hedge In Uncertain Times

Wall Street is in the throes of a gold rush, as investors drive the price of the precious metal to new heights.

Gold has been the best investment of the year so far. The price of the precious metal has climbed nearly 27% this year, more than triple the return of the largest U.S. bond funds and towering over the roughly 1% return of big U.S. stocks.

After topping $1,800 per ounce in 2011, it’s taken nearly a decade for gold to surpass that level. Gold closed Monday at a record $1,931 an ounce after briefly climbing to $1,941.90 an ounce. Analysts at BofA Global Research say gold could reach $3,000 per ounce.

Several factors are pushing gold higher: Investors are anxious about the pandemic's ultimate impact on the economy, worried over resurgent tensions between the U.S. and China, and fearful of runaway inflation as spending to cushion the economic fallout swells the federal budget deficit.

Uncertainty over the outcome of the elections in November may also be giving investors reason to hedge their bets with gold.

Meanwhile, the market’s sharp rebound from its lows in March is making stocks look expensive relative to earnings. Based on forward 12-month earnings, the S&P 500 is trading at a 50% premium to its 20-year average. That's likely making an asset like gold more attractive even as stocks continue to rally, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

“There are many bricks in this wall of worry,” Stovall said.

Here is a closer look at the main reasons behind gold's run to a record:

THE PANDEMIC

The biggest reason for the surge is fear surrounding the pandemic. No one knows how many people the new virus will ultimately kill — or how much of the world’s economy it will destroy. That sways investors toward the metal that has long been considered a safe haven for wealth in turbulent times. A resurgence of confirmed cases of the coronavirus has put a damper on Wall Street’s hopes for a relatively quick economic recovery as some states curtail plans to reopen businesses. Optimism for a full economic recovery now rests almost entirely on the successful development of a vaccine and therapies to treat patients suffering from COVID-19.

U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS

Worries over U.S.-China tensions have also drawn investors to gold. Washington and Beijing had reached a first-stage trade agreement in January, but tensions between the two nations have grown heated again, adding new worries about the potential for the world's two largest economies to impose tariffs on each others' goods.

THE DOLLAR

Many investors see gold as a way to protect against a falling U.S. dollar, and the greenback is at its lowest level against the Swiss franc in more than five years. The U.S. Dollar index, which measures its value against the Swiss franc and five other major currencies, is at its lowest level in more than two years. A weaker dollar also makes gold cheaper for investors buying in other currencies, because it’s priced in dollars.

LOW INTEREST RATES

For nervous investors, the safest places to put their money are Treasury bonds and gold. But Treasurys are paying close to the lowest amount of interest in history, with a 10-year Treasury note yielding just 0.58%. After taking inflation into account, investors are probably losing purchasing power by holding a Treasury that long. That makes gold more attractive in comparison.

THE DEFICIT

The federal government’s budget deficit hit $864 billion in June, the biggest monthly budget shortfall in history. The deficit has ballooned as spending on programs to combat the coronavirus recession have exploded while millions of job losses have cut into tax revenues. A surging federal budget deficit heightens the risk of inflation and may be contributing to investors' appetite for gold. Investors have historically seen gold as a way to protect against inflation.

“Inflation did not spike the last time we flooded the economy with cash, but it did so in previous periods in history,” Stovall said.



7/27/2020

Gold Settles At An All-Time High On Dollar Weakness And Dovish Fed Expectations

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Monday closed up +33.5 (+1.77%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +1.651 (+7.23%).

Metals prices on Monday settled sharply higher with gold at a record nearest-futures high and silver at a 6-3/4 year high. Gold rallied on dollar weakness and expectations for a dovish FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday. Silver prices saw support on better-than-expected U.S. economic data.

The dollar index tumbled to a 2-year low on Monday, which was a major supportive factor for metals prices. Also, expectations for additional government stimulus are bullish for industrial metals prices as Senate Majority leader McConnell is expected to release a $1 trillion pandemic relief proposal later on Monday, which will kick off negotiations with Democrats on further relief measures.

Monday's U.S. economic data was negative for gold but supportive of industrial metals demand and silver prices. June durable goods orders rose +7.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +6.9%. Also, June capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft rose +3.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.2%, and the biggest increase in 23 months. In addition, the July Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index rose +3.1 to a 5-month high of -3.0, stronger than expectations of -4.8.

U.S./China tensions are positive for safe-haven demand of gold after China last Friday ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in retaliation for the U.S. shutting down the Chinese consulate in Houston early last week.

The rising spread of Covid infections throughout the world has sparked safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 16.447 million globally, with deaths exceeding 652,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,320.73 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 868.245 million ounces on Friday.



Gold Aug '20 (GCQ20) 1,936.9 +39.4 (+2.08%), Gold new record High price! Time to bet the ranch on Gold Bullion? Gold to the Moon? Me thinks so = hyperinflation nation.

HI HO Silver! 

Lyrics
Sometimes I sit yeah, feeling alone
No one to talk to I got no telephone
And at night I wake up, I just lie and stare
Come on and save me from this nightmare
Hi ho silver, here come the lone ranger
He's riding on down to rescue me
I know the road I must take, with a wink of my eye
I leave old friends behind like old alibi
I take all they throw against me I make a stand
For truth and justice and for the common man
Hi ho silver, here come the lone ranger
He's riding on down to rescue me
And I guess it took some time for me to decide
If you were just my hero, or my friend
Watching with my innocent eyes
Your silver stallion ride
across my room I'd listen as they cried
Hi ho silver, here come the lone ranger
He's riding on down to rescue me

 



7/24/2020

Gold bulls' next upside near-term price objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at the all-time high of $1,920.70! Anything above 
1,920.70 .999 gold bullion vs. USD = Huge breakout?; Then bet the ranch in physical gold bullion to the Moon?

Gold Rallies To A Fresh 8-3/4 Year High On Dollar Weakness And Escalation Of U.S./China Tensions

Tumbling Dollar Unleashes Precious-Metals Rally



Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +11.0 (+0.58%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.107 (+0.47%).

Metals prices this morning are stronger with gold at a new 8-3/4 year nearest-futures high. A slump in the dollar index to a new 1-3/4 year low today is giving metals prices a boost. Gold is also garnering safe-haven support from escalating U.S./China tensions, while silver is finding support on stronger-than-expected global manufacturing activity.

Ramped-up U.S./China tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for gold today after China ordered the U.S. to close the consulate in Chengdu in retaliation for the U.S. shutting down the Chinese consulate in Houston.

Signs of strength in global manufacturing activity are supportive of industrial metals demand and bullish for silver prices. The Eurozone July Markit manufacturing PMI rose +3.7 to 51.1, stronger than expectations of +2.7 to 50.1, and the fastest pace of expansion in 1-1/2 years. Also, the UK July Markit manufacturing PMI rose +3.5 to 53.6, stronger than expectations of +1.9 to 52.0, and the fastest pace of expansion in 16 months. Finally, the U.S. July Markit manufacturing PMI rose +1.5 to 51.3, weaker than expectations of +2.2 to 52.0, but the first time manufacturing activity expanded in 5 months.

Other global economic data today was bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. June new home sales jumped +13.8% to a 13-year high of 776,000, stronger than expectations of +3.6% to 700,000. Also, UK July retail sales ex-auto fuel rose a record +13.5% m/m (data from 1988), stronger than expectations of +7.9% m/m.

The rising spread of Covid infections throughout the world has sparked safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 15.684 million globally, with deaths exceeding 637,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,312.63 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 859.104 million ounces on Thursday.



7/23/2020

Metals Are Mixed With Gold At A New 8-3/4 Year High On Dollar Weakness And The Outlook For More Stimulus

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +19.0 (+1.02%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is down -0.309 (-1.34%).

Metals prices this morning are mixed with gold at a new 8-3/4 year nearest-futures high. A slide in the dollar index to a 4-1/2 month low today is a bullish factor for metals prices. Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data today boosted gold prices and undercut silver prices.

Today's weaker-than-expected U.S economic data was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose +109,000 to 1.416 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.300 million. Also, June leading indicators rose +2.0%, slightly weaker than expectations of +2.1%.

Expectations for additional government stimulus are supportive for industrial metals demand. Senate Republicans reached an agreement Wednesday evening on the spending portion of their $1 trillion stimulus plan, and Senate Majority leader McConnell may introduce the plan today that will be countered by a $3.5 trillion virus relief plan from Senate Democrats.

Tensions between the U.S. and China remain high, which is bullish for safe-haven demand for gold after the U.S. on Wednesday ordered China's Houston consulate to close within three days. China's Foreign Ministry said it would "react with firm countermeasures" if the U.S. does not "revoke this erroneous decision."

Comments today from ECB Governing Council member de Cos suggest he favors additional stimulus and were bullish for gold when he said the Eurozone recovery is gradual and uneven, and a high degree of monetary accommodation is needed.

The rising spread of Covid infections throughout the world has sparked safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 15.404 million globally, with deaths exceeding 631,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,302.09 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 851.386 million ounces on Wednesday.



7/21/2020

Metals Close Higher With Silver At A 3-3/4 Year High On Dollar Weakness And Covid Concerns

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Monday closed up +7.4 (+0.41%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +0.438 (+2.17%).

Metals on Monday pushed higher with gold at a 1-week high and silver at a 3-3/4 year high. A slump in the dollar index on Monday to a 1-1/4 month low boosted metals prices. Also, rising Covid infection rates in the U.S. boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals. In addition, progress from EU leaders on a 750 billion-euro pandemic recovery package was positive for industrial metals demand.

The rising spread of Covid infections in the U.S. has sparked safe-haven demand for precious metals. Florida on Sunday had its fifth consecutive day of more than 10,000 new virus cases, and House Representative Shalala said the outbreak in Florida is "totally out of control." Also, the mayor of Los Angeles said the city is "on the brink" of new restrictions to try to stem the surge in new Covid infections. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 14.668 million globally, with deaths exceeding 609,000.

Industrial metals prices garnered support Monday on signs that EU leaders have made progress on the 750 billion-euro pandemic recovery plan. The Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, and Sweden dropped their opposition to the plan after leaders agreed that 390 billion euros of the 750 billion euro package would be available as grants, with the rest as low-interest loans. The negotiations are scheduled to resume today in Brussels to finalize the deal.

A bullish factor for industrial metals demand and silver prices was Monday's comment from ECB Vice President Guindos said "the most recent data" shows that Eurozone Q2 GDP contraction will be better than earlier ECB estimates of around -13%.

A negative factor for gold demand as an inflation hedge was Monday's news that the German June PPI fell -1.8% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of -1.7% y/y.

A negative for industrial metals demand was Monday's news that Japan's June exports fell -26.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -24.7% y/y.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,265.84 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 828.443 million ounces on Friday.



7/17/2020

Metals Climb On A Weak Dollar And Expectations For More Government Stimulus

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +10.9 (+0.61%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.152 (+0.78%).

Metals this morning are moving higher on a weaker dollar and the prospects for additional U.S. government stimulus. Gold also gained as EU leaders discussed a 750 billion-euro pandemic recovery fund, which would be funded by new debt. Gains in silver were limited by weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data.

Metals prices are seeing strength today on expectations for more global stimulus. A top aide to Vice President Pence said the administration wants Congress to pass another stimulus package before lawmakers leave for the summer recess the first week of August. Also, EU leaders today are discussing a 750 billion-euro pandemic recovery fund at a summit in Brussels. ECB Vice President Guindos said he expects "major progress" in negotiations of European leaders this week about a joint recovery fund and sees a final deal being reached by the end of the month.

Today's U.S. economic data was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. June housing starts rose +17.3% to 1.186 million, weaker than expectations for an increase to 1.190 million. Also, June building permits rose +2.1% to 1.241 million, weaker than expectations of +1.293 million. In addition, the preliminary-July University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell -4.9 to 73.2, weaker than expectations of +0.9 to 79.0.

A negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices was today's action by the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to cut their estimate for Eurozone 2020 GDP to -8.3% from an Apr forecast of -5.5%.

A positive for silver prices was today's action by RBC Capital Markets to raise its 2020 silver price forecast to $20 an ounce, citing an expected physical deficit of silver due to increased investment demand and strength across industrial sectors in China.

Pandemic concerns are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices but are bullish for gold due to increased safe-haven demand. Florida and Texas on Thursday both reported a record number of Covid deaths. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 13.979 million globally, with deaths exceeding 593,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,262.32 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 822.906 million ounces on Thursday.



7/13/2020

Precious Metals Mooning With Silver At A 10-Month High On Dollar Weakness And Coronavirus Safe-Haven Demand

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +3.9 (+0.22%) and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.447 (+2.35%).

Precious metals prices this morning are moving higher on a weaker dollar and coronavirus concerns. The worsening of the coronavirus pandemic may prompt governments to keep lockdowns in place that will slow global economic growth and force the world's central banks to boost stimulus measures.

Silver rallied on strength in Chinese stocks after the Shanghai Composite climbed to a 17-month high, which shows confidence in China's economy that may lead to increased demand for industrial metals, including silver.

Coronavirus concerns are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices but are bullish for gold due to increased safe-haven demand. Florida, on Sunday, reported a 1-day record of 15,300 new virus infections. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 13.062 million globally, with deaths exceeding 572,000.

A bullish factor for gold prices today is an uptick in German wholesale prices, which is positive for gold demand as an inflation hedge. Today's German June wholesale price index rose +0.6% m/m, the biggest increase in 5 months.

Additional stimulus measures in Europe may revive economic growth and are positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. French Finance Minister Le Maire said today that France would unveil "massive" support for youth unemployment this week and a new broad stimulus plan, including tax cuts for companies at the end of August.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,244.74 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 818.123 million ounces on Friday.



7/10/2020

Precious Metals Gain On Dollar Weakness And On Pandemic Concerns .999 Gold Bullion is "Never to High to Buy"!

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +4.0 (+0.22%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.123 (+0.65%).

Precious metals prices this morning are moving higher on a weaker dollar, and on concerns a resurgence in the coronavirus will derail the global economic recovery. Also, silver prices gained support from strong European economic data that was positive for industrial metals demand.

The dollar this morning gave up overnight gains and moved lower, providing support for precious metals prices. The dollar retreated on reduced liquidity-demand after Gilead Sciences announced today that its Remdesivir drug to treat the coronavirus showed a 62% cut in mortality risk for patients taking the drug.

Coronavirus concerns are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices but bullish for gold on safe-haven demand. The U.S. reported a record of 61,791 new coronavirus infections on Thursday. Florida, Texas, and California all reported a record number of deaths from the virus. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 12.421 million globally, with deaths exceeding 558,000.

Comments today from Dallas Fed President Kaplan were negative for gold demand as an inflation hedge when he said, we "don't expect inflationary pressures for a while."

Slack price pressures were also bearish for gold demand after the U.S. June core PPI report of -0.3% m/m, and +0.1% y/y was weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y, and the +0.1% y/y gain was the smallest year-on-year increase since the data began in 2010.

Global economic data today was supportive of industrial metals demand and silver prices after Chinese Jun aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit growth, rose +3.43 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +3.05 trillion yuan. Also, French May manufacturing production rose +22.0% m/m, the biggest increase since the data began in 1980. In addition, Italy's May industrial production surged +42.1% m/m, much stronger than expectations of +24.0% m/m and the biggest increase since the data began in 1990.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,244.12 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 808.589 million ounces on Thursday.



7/9/2020

Precious Metals Close Lower As The Dollar Index Recovers From A 4-Week Low

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Thursday closed down -16.8 (-0.92%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed down -0.199 (-1.04%).

Precious metals prices on Thursday gave up early gains and turned lower after the dollar index rebounded from a 4-week low and moved higher. Also, silver retreated on concerns about industrial metals demand as a resurgence in coronavirus cases may keep lockdowns in place and derail an economic recovery.

Thursday's U.S. economic data was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims fell -99,000 to a 3-1/2 month low of 1.324 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations for a decline to 1.375 million. Also, May wholesale trade sales rose +5.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +4.5% m/m, and the largest increase since the data began in 1992.

Coronavirus concerns are negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices but bullish for gold on safe-haven demand. California on Wednesday reported its biggest jump in coronavirus infections, and Texas reported a record number of coronavirus deaths. The virus is also flaring again in parts of Asia after Hong Kong and Tokyo reported record spikes in new infections. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 12.197 million globally, with deaths exceeding 553,000.

Comments on Thursday from Atlanta Fed President Bostic were supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices when he said the U.S. economy will still be in recovery mode from the pandemic in a year’s time and won't get back to pre-virus levels until mid-2021 or 2022.

Safe-haven demand for gold increased Thursday on ramped-up U.S./China tensions after Reuters reported the U.S. is finalizing a federal contract ban for companies using products from China's Huawei Technologies.

Japanese economic concerns are bearish industrial metals demand and silver prices after the BOJ on Thursday in its quarterly regional report downgraded its assessment of all of Japan's nine regional economies due to Covid-19. The BOJ said all of the regions had either "deteriorated" or were "in a severe situation." On the positive side for silver, Thursday's data showed Japan May core machine orders unexpectedly rose +1.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of -5.0% m/m.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,240.72 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 808.517 million ounces on Tuesday.



7/8/2020

Gold Climbs To A New 8-3/4 Year High As Pandemic Bolsters Outlook For Additional Stimulus =Hyperinflation Nation!

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +14.0 (+0.77%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.296 (+1.58%).

Precious metals prices this morning are moderately higher with gold at a fresh 8-3/4 year high and silver at a 5-week high. Precious metals continue to rally as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that is slowing reopening of world economies may also spur central banks to expand their stimulus measures.

Coronavirus concerns are driving safe-haven demand for precious metals. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 11.98 million globally, with deaths exceeding 547,000.

Lower global bond yields are also positive for gold demand as a store of value as the 10-year German bund yield today fell to a 1-week low of -0.456%, and the 10-year Japanese JGB bond yields dropped to a 1-week low of 0.021%.

Safe-haven demand for gold increased today on ramped-up U.S./China tensions after China said it would restrict visas for U.S. officials for what it called "egregious" behavior over Tibet. The U.S. on Tuesday imposed travel restrictions on Chinese officials determined to be "substantially involved" in restricting access to Tibet.

Comments today from ECB President Lagarde signal the ECB will stand pat at next Thursday's policy meeting, which is negative for gold. She said that measures unleashed by the ECB in the wake of the pandemic have "demonstrated their efficiency, their effectiveness and that we have quite a bit of time to assess" economic data "carefully."

Comments today from ECB Vice President Guindos were bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices when he said, "the outlook is a little bit brighter than it was only two months ago in terms of economic performance."

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,234.56 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 808.517 million ounces on Tuesday.



7/3/2020

Precious Metals Close Higher On Coronavirus Concerns = .999 Gold and .999 Silver Bullion "Strong Buy" uptrend = Hyperinflation?

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Thursday closed up +10.1 (+0.57%), and Sep silver (SIU20) closed up +0.104 (+0.57%).

Precious metals prices on Thursday recovered from early losses and closed higher on concern that the acceleration of coronavirus infections will force states to maintain at least partial lockdowns. Gold prices early Thursday fell on the better-than-expected U.S. payroll report, but recovered their losses and moved higher.

Gold posted moderate gains Thursday on elevated coronavirus concerns. The U.S. on Wednesday reported that new virus infections climbed by a record 51,374, up +1.95% from Tuesday and the fastest daily growth rate since May. The pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 10.834 million globally, with deaths exceeding 519,000.

Gold prices retreated briefly Thursday morning after U.S. June non-farm payrolls rose +4.8 million, stronger than expectations of +3.23 million, and the largest increase since the data began in 1939. Also, the June unemployment rate fell by -2.2 points to 11.1%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations for a decline to 12.5%.

Other U.S. economic news on Thursday was mixed for precious metals. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -55,000 to 1.427 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations for a decline to 1.350 million. Also, U.S. May factory orders rose +8.0%, weaker than expectations of +8.6%, but still the biggest increase in 5-3/4 years.

Soft inflation pressures were negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation. The Eurozone May PPI fell -5.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.5% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 10-1/2 years.

Global economic data on Thursday was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone May unemployment rate rose +0.1 to 7.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of +0.4 to 7.7%. Also, China Jun auto sales rose +11% y/y to 2.28 million, the third straight monthly increase.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,206.24 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 792.878 million ounces on Wednesday.



 



7/2/2020

Cornavirus Concerns Keep Safe-Haven Demand For Precious Metals Firm .999 silver bullion looking good!

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +8.0 (+0.45%), and Sep silver (SIU20) is up +0.112 (+0.61%).

Precious metals prices this morning are stronger as the dollar index drops to a 1-week low. Gold prices initially fell on a better-than-expected U.S. payrolls report, but recovered their losses and moved higher on concern a pickup in coronavirus infections will keep states from further easing lockdowns.

Gold is gaining today as coronavirus concerns remain elevated after the U.S. reported new virus infections climbed by a record 51,374 on Wednesday, up +1.95% from Tuesday, and the fastest pace of increase since May. The pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 10.834 million globally, with deaths exceeding 519,000.

Gold prices retreated briefly this morning on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied sharply after U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls rose +4.8 million, stronger than expectations of +3.23 million and the largest increase since the data began in 1939. Also, the Jun unemployment rate fell -2.2 to 11.1%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 12.5%.

Other U.S. economic data today was mixed for precious metals. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -55,000 to 1.427 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.350 million. Also, U.S. May factory orders rose +8.0%, weaker than expectations of +8.6%, but still the biggest increase in 5-3/4 years.

A lack of price pressures are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after today's data showed U.S. Jun avg hourly earnings fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m and the biggest decline since the data series began in 2006. Also, Eurozone May PPI fell -5.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.5% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 10-1/2 years.

Global economic data today was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone May unemployment rate rose +0.1 to 7.4%, showing a more robust labor market than expectations of +0.4 to 7.7%. Also, China Jun auto sales rose +11% y/y to 2.28 million, the third straight monthly increase.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,206.24 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 792.878 million ounces on Wednesday.



7/1/2020

Gold Settles At An 8-1/2 Year High As Surging Pandemic Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Tuesday closed up +19.3 (+1.08%), and July silver (SIN20) closed up +0.561 (+3.12%).

Precious metals prices on Tuesday moved higher with gold at an 8-1/2 year high and silver at a 4-week high. A resurgence of coronavirus cases, along with record amounts of stimulus from central banks, boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals.

The recent surge of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. has forced some states to scale back their reopenings. Arizona closed bars and gyms, and New Jersey halted plans for indoor dining. Also, L.A. County in Californian warned of hospitals being overwhelmed after the 7-day average rate of positive virus tests jumped to 8.4% from 4.6% in late May. The pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 10.433 million globally, with deaths exceeding 508,000.

Tuesday's U.S. economic data was mostly bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Conference Board's U.S. Jun consumer confidence index rose +12.2 to 98.1, stronger than expectations for an increase to 91.5. Also, the Apr S&P Core Logic composite-20 home price index rose +3.98% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.80% y/y, and the biggest increase in 16 months. Conversely, the Jun Chicago PMI rose +4.3 to 36.6, weaker than expectations of +12.7 to 45.0.

Comments on Tuesday from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel were supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices when he said we are in a phase of extreme uncertainty, and it's "very likely" that the recovery from the pandemic will be slow and not as swift as many had hoped.

Weak Eurozone inflation pressures are dovish for ECB policy and bullish for gold. The Eurozone Jun core CPI eased to a 13-month low of +0.8% y/y, which was in line with market expectations.

Asian economic data on Tuesday was mixed for metals prices. The China Jun manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 50.9, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 50.5. Conversely, Japan May industrial production fell -8.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -5.9% m/m.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,199.12 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 773.68 million ounces on Monday.




6/30/2020

Gold Soars To An 8-1/2 Year High As Surging Pandemic Fuels Safe-Haven Demand .999 Gold Bullion to the Moon!

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +18.2 (+1.02%), and July silver (SIN20) is up +0.420 (+2.34%).

Precious metals prices this morning are stronger with gold at an 8-1/2 year high and silver at a 2-1/2 week high. A resurgence of coronavirus cases, along with record amounts of stimulus from central banks, has boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals.

The surge of the pandemic in the U.S. has forced some states to scale back their reopenings. Arizona closed bars and gyms, and New Jersey halted plans for indoor dining. Also, L.A. County in Californian warned of hospitals being overwhelmed after the 7-day average rate of positive virus tests jumped to 8.4% from 4.6% in late May. The pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 10.433 million globally, with deaths exceeding 508,000.

Today's U.S. economic data was mostly bearish for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Conference Board's U.S. Jun consumer confidence index rose +12.2 to 98.1, stronger than expectations for an increase to 91.5. Also, the Apr S&P Core Logic composite-20 hone price index rose +3.98% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.80% y/y, and the biggest increase in 16 months. Conversely, the Jun Chicago PMI rose +4.3 to 36.6, weaker than expectations of +12.7 to 45.0.

Comments today from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel were supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices when he said we are in a phase of extreme uncertainty, and it's "very likely" that the recovery from the pandemic will be slow and not as swift as many had hoped.

Weak Eurozone inflation pressures are dovish for ECB policy and bullish for gold. The Eurozone Jun core CPI eased to a 13-month low of +0.8% y/y, which was in line with market expectations.

Asian economic data today was mixed for metals prices. The China Jun manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 50.9, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 50.5. Conversely, Japan May industrial production fell -8.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -5.9% m/m.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a new record high of 3,199.12 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 773.68 million ounces on Monday.

6/25/2020

Gold Closes Lower On Rebound In Stocks And A Stronger Dollar

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Thursday closed down -4.5 (-0.25%), and July silver (SIN20) closed up +0.225 (+1.27%).

Precious metals prices on Thursday settled mixed. Gold traded lower on a recovery in stocks from overnight losses and on a stronger dollar. Silver rose on some economic optimism after mixed data on Thursday.

Concern about a resurgence of the pandemic provided underlying support for gold prices. On Wednesday, Texas, Florida, and California all reported daily records of new coronavirus infections, and Arizona reached a peak in hospitalizations. The U.S. reported 36,880 new infections on Wednesday, the biggest one-day increase since the pandemic began. The coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 9.555 million globally, with deaths exceeding 485,000.

Comments on Thursday from White House economic adviser Kudlow were bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices when he said the U.S. economy would not be shut down again despite "spikes and hot spots" of coronavirus infections.

Gold found support Thursday after the ECB set up a new lending facility to provide liquidity to banks outside of the EU. The new lending facility, called EUREP, will provide funds offered against adequate collateral of euro-denominated debt securities from Eurozone governments and institutions and will be available until June 2021.

Thursday's U.S. economic data was mixed for metals prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims fell -60,000 to 1.480 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations for a decline to 1.335 million. Conversely, May core capital good orders (ex-defense and aircraft) rose +2.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m, and the biggest increase in 14 months. In addition, May wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell -1.2% m/m, the biggest decline in 10-1/2 years, versus expectations for an increase of +0.4% m/m. The sharp drop in inventories is positive for future growth prospects and industrial metals demand.

Thursday's global data was bearish for gold but bullish for silver and industrial metals demand. The German Jul GfK consumer confidence index rose +9.0 to -9.6, stronger than expectations of +6.6 to -12.0. Also, UK Jun CBI retailing reported sales rose +13 to -37, slightly stronger than expectations of +12 to -38. In addition, the Japan Apr all-industry activity index fell -6.4% m/m, slightly better than expectations of -6.5% m/m but still the biggest decline in 9 years.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,190.75 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 765.245 million ounces on Wednesday.



6/24/2020

Gold Falls Back From A 7-1/2 Year High As A Slump In Stocks Raises Concern About Margin Calls

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is down -1.3 (-0.07%), and July silver (SIN20) is down -0.343 (-1.90%).

Precious metals prices this morning are weaker on a stronger dollar and a slump in stocks, which caused concern about liquidation of long gold positions to raise cash for stock margin calls. Gold prices initially rallied in overnight trading, with Aug gold at a contract high and nearest-futures gold (M20) at a 7-1/2 year high due to an increased pace of global coronavirus infections. Silver prices retreated after the IMF lowered its global 2020 GDP forecast.

An increase in global coronavirus infections is hammering stocks today and is positive for safe-haven demand for gold. Germany reported 712 new cases of infections today, a 49% increase from the prior day. Japan reported 55 new infections, the most in 7 weeks. Also, new cases surged in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and in California, which on Tuesday broke its record for new cases for the 4th day in the past week. The pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies and is negative for economic growth prospects and industrial metals demand. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 9.381 million globally, with deaths exceeding 480,000.

Today's action by the IMF to lower their global 2020 GDP estimate is bullish for gold and negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The IMF lowered its global 2020 GDP forecast to -4.9% from April's -3.0%.

Today's U.S economic data was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The U.S. Apr FHFA house price index rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

Today's European data was bearish for gold but bullish for silver and industrial metals demand. The German Jun IFO business climate index rose 6.5 to 86.2, stronger than expectations of +5.5 to 85.0. Also, French June business confidence rose +18 to 78, stronger than expectations of 72.

Weak global price pressures are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after Japan May services PPI eased to an 8-month low of +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,177.27 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 761.943 million ounces on Friday.

 

6/22/2020

Precious Metals Close At 1-Week Highs On The Prospects For Additional Stimulus = Hyperinflation Venezuela Styled economy on tap for the U.S.?

Precious metals prices on Friday rallied to 1-week highs and closed higher. Comments on Friday from Boston Fed President Rosengren were supportive for precious metals when he said "more support is likely to be needed from both monetary and fiscal policy" with unemployment remaining above 10% through the end of this year and inflation persisting "well below" the Fed's 2% target.

Metals prices also gained Friday on the outlook for additional EU stimulus measures. EU leaders on Friday met via videoconference to iron out the details of the EU's 750 billion-euro program to help economies recover from lockdowns.

Silver prices garnered support Friday from stronger-than-expected global economic data, which was positive for industrial metals demand. UK May retail sales ex-auto fuel rose +10.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +4.1% m/m, and the largest increase since the data began in 1988. Also, Japan's Cabinet Office on Friday upgraded its assessment of the economy in its monthly report, saying the economy has "almost stopped deteriorating," and private consumption is now "showing movements of picking up."

Slack price pressures were negative for gold demand as an inflation hedge. Friday's German May PPI fell -2.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.0% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 4 years.

An easing of U.S./China tensions was negative for safe-haven demand for precious metals. Bloomberg reported that China plans to accelerate purchases of U.S. farm goods to comply with the Phase One trade deal after purchases fell behind earlier this year due to the pandemic.

The coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies and is negative for economic growth prospects and industrial metals demand. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 8.608 million globally, with deaths exceeding 457,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,139.88 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 761.084 million ounces on Thursday.

Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) highly stimulative monetary policies by the world's key central banks to prevent systemic stress in the global financial system and combat the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, (2) low global bond yields, which boost demand for gold as a store of value, (3) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, (4) fund buying of precious metals with long gold and long silver positions in ETFs at all-time highs, and (5) safe-haven demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, trade tensions, end-2020 Brexit risks, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) fears of long-term deflation due to the massive economic damage from the pandemic, and (2) sharply reduced industrial metals demand, including for silver, due to the plunge in global economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic.



6/16/2020

Metals Slide On Sharp Sell-Off In Stocks, Pandemic Uptick, And Weak Chinese Economic Data #SLV #GLD #Silver #Gold

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Monday closed down -10.1 (-0.58%), and July silver (SIN20) closed down -0.083 (-0.47%).

Precious metals on Monday moved lower, with silver at a 1-month low. Gold fell back on concern about a resurgence of the coronavirus in China, which sparked a demand for cash and prompted investors to liquidate other physical assets, including gold. Signs of a slow pace of economic recovery in China is also negative for industrial metals demand and weighed on silver prices.

Stocks initially fell sharply Monday on news of a coronavirus outbreak in China. Beijing shut down the Xinfadi market, the city's largest fruit and vegetable supply center, after more than 100 new coronavirus infections were reported there over the weekend. Also, Beijing, a city of 20 million people, locked down more than 20 residential compounds after a coronavirus infection was found in nearby Yuquandong market. This would normally boost safe-haven demand for gold, but sharp losses in global equity markets raised concerns that speculative investors will liquidate long gold positions to raise cash to cover increased margin calls.

Silver prices retreated Monday on signs of a slow economic recovery in China after China's May industrial production rose +4.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.0% y/y. Also, China's May retail sales fell -2.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.3% y/y.

Comments on Monday from San Francisco Fed President Daly were supportive for gold demand as a store of value when she said she expects the "current stance of highly accommodative monetary policy to continue until the economy has largely been recovered what's been lost due to the coronavirus."

Comments on Sunday from Dallas Fed President Kaplan were dovish for Fed policy and bullish for gold when he said that although U.S. employment will increase in coming months, the jobless rate will remain "elevated" through the end of the year.

The coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 8.018 million globally, with deaths exceeding 436,000.

Japanese economic data on Monday was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices after the Japan Apr tertiary industry index fell -6.0% m/m, which was better than expectations of -7.7% m/m but matched the Apr 1997 fall as the biggest decline in 31 years.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Friday rose to a new record high of 3,132.20 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 754.267 million ounces on Friday.



6/11/2020

Precious Metals Rally With Gold At A 1-Week High On Weak Stocks And A Dovish Fed

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) this morning is up +31.1 (+1.81%), and July silver (SIN20) is up +0.454 (+2.55%).

Precious metals this morning are moving higher with gold at a 1-week high. Metals are stronger on the outcome of Wednesday's dovish FOMC meeting where the FOMC announced that it will continue to purchase about $80 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities and that the fed funds rate will remain near zero through 2022.

Metals prices added to their gains this morning on increased safe-haven demand after stocks tumbled on concern about a second wave of coronavirus infections. Texas on Wednesday reported 2,504 new coronavirus cases, the largest one-day total since the outbreak began. Florida reported 8,553 new cases a month into its reopening, the most of any seven-day period. California coronavirus hospitalizations have risen in 9 of the last 10 days and are at their highest in a month. The coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the U.S. and global economies. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 7.482 million globally, with deaths exceeding 419,000.

Today's U.S. weekly jobless claims data was negative for gold but positive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -355,000 to 1.542 million, showing a slightly stronger labor market than expectations of 1.550 million.

Slack U.S producer prices are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after the May core PPI eased to a 4-1/4 year low of +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% y/y.

Global economic data today was mostly supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. French Q1 total payrolls unexpectedly fell -2.0% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.4% q/q and the biggest decline since the data began in 2011. Also, Italy's Apr industrial production fell -42.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -41.1% y/y and the biggest decline since the data began in 1990. In addition, the Japan Q2 BSI large all-industry business conditions index fell -37.5 to an 11-year low of -47.6, weaker than expectations of -28.3 to -38.4.

Dovish comments today from ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf were bullish for gold when he said the economic downturn is likely to create "substantial economic slack" in the Eurozone that "will dominate and result in weak inflation dynamics over the medium-term."

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,131.29 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 746.077 million ounces last Thursday.



6/10/2020

Precious Metals Climb On Dollar Weakness Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Outcome

Precious metals this morning are trading higher on a decline in the dollar index to a fresh 2-3/4 month low. Gold also found support on a gloomy OECD economic forecast and on a warning from the top U.S. infectious disease expert that the coronavirus outbreak is far from over.

Today's forecast from the OECD was supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The OECD in its quarterly outlook forecasted that global 2020 GDP will contract -6.0%, and will fall -7.6% if there is a second pandemic wave.

Precious metals also saw support from safe-haven demand on comments from Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, who called the coronavirus his "worst nightmare" and warned that the pandemic is far from over. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 7.344 million globally, with deaths exceeding 414,000.

Global economic data on Tuesday was mostly supportive for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Japan Apr core machine orders fell -17.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -13.2% y/y and the biggest decline in 10-1/2 years. Also, France Apr manufacturing production fell -21.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -18.1% m/m and the biggest decline since the data began in 1980.

Hawkish ECB comments today were negative for gold demand as a store of value when ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said today that the ECB's actions thus far have reduced the risk of deflation. Also, ECB Governing Council member Muller said that there may be no need to boost the ECB's emergency bond-buying program again.

Slack global price pressures are bearish for gold demand as an inflation hedge. The U.S. May core CPI eased to a 9-year low of +1.2% y/y and was weaker than expectations of +1.3% y/y. Also, China May CPI rose +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 14 months. In addition, Japan May PPI fell -2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -2.4% y/y and the steepest pace of decline in 3-1/2 years.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs last Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,131.29 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 746.077 million ounces last Thursday.



6/5/2020

Precious Metals Settle Higher On Dollar Weakness And Additional Stimulus Measures

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Thursday closed up +22.6 (+1.33%), and July silver (SIN20) closed up +0.103 (+0.57%).

Precious metals on Thursday moved higher after the dollar index tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low and after the ECB expanded its Pandemic QE program.

Thursday's U.S. labor market data was weaker-than-expected, which was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell -249,000 to 1.877 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.833 million. Also, weekly continuing claims unexpectedly rose +649,000 to 21.487 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations for a decline to 20.000 million.

Industrial metals prices found support on hopes for a German economic rebound after German lawmakers late Wednesday agreed on a second coronavirus rescue package worth 130 billion euros ($145 billion), above initial expectations of 100 billion euros.

Thursday's action by the ECB was also supportive for gold after it added 600 billion euros to its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, above estimates of 500 billion euros, and extended the program beyond the end of this year to June 2021.

Global economic data on Thursday was mostly weaker-than-expected, which was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. Eurozone Apr retail sales fell -11.7% m/m, the biggest decline since the data series began in 1999 but better than expectations of -15.0% m/m. Also, UK May new car registrations fell -89.0% y/y, the fifth straight month new car registrations have fallen. In addition, the UK May Markit/CIPS construction PMI rose +20.7 to 28.9, slightly weaker than expectations of +21.2 to 29.4.

Ramped-up U.S./China tensions are bullish for safe-haven demand for precious metals after Dow Jones reported Thursday that the U.S. is considering adding Chinese media companies to the Foreign-Mission List. The designation would require the People's Daily, Global Times China Central Television, China News Service, and Phoenix Satellite Television to declare their staff and property in the U.S.

Precious metal prices continue to see underlying safe-haven demand from the global coronavirus pandemic. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 6.641 million globally, with deaths exceeding 390,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Wednesday rose to a new record high of 3,131.29 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 745.866 million ounces on Wednesday.



6/3/2020

Gold Closes At A 1-Month Low On Reduced Safe-Haven Demand As Stocks Rally

Aug Comex gold (GCQ20) on Wednesday closed down -29.2 (-1.68%), and July silver (SIN20) closed down -0.302 (-1.65%).

Precious metals on Wednesday retreated with gold at a 1-month low. Strength in global equity markets reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, better-than-expected economic data bolstered optimism in the global economic recovery and prompted long liquidation in precious metals.

The S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to 2-3/4 month highs Wednesday and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 3-1/4 month high. Global stocks extended this week's rally on optimism that the ease of coronavirus lockdown will spark an economic recovery.

Wednesday's U.S. economic data was stronger-than-expected, which is bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. May ADP employment fell -2.76 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of -9.0 million. Also, the May ISM non-manufacturing index rose +3.6 to 45.4, stronger than expectations of +2.6 to 44.4. In addition, Apr factory orders fell -13.0% m/m, the biggest decline since data began in 1956 but slightly better than expectations of -13.4% m/m.

Global economic data on Wednesday was mostly better-than-expected, which was bearish for gold but supportive for industrial metals demand and silver prices. The Eurozone May Markit composite PMI was revised upward by +1.4 to 31.9 from the originally reported 30.5. Also, the Eurozone Apr unemployment rate rose +0.2 to 7.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 8.2%. In addition, the China May Caixin services PMI rose +10.6 to a record high of 55.0 (data from 2017), stronger than expectations of +2.9 to 47.3.

Eurozone price pressures remain weak, which reduces demand for gold as an inflation hedge. The Eurozone Apr PPI fell -4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.2% y/y and the biggest decline in 10-1/2 years.

A bullish factor for metals on Wednesday was continued weakness in the dollar. The dollar index on Wednesday fell for a fifth day and posted a new 2-1/2 month low.

In a bullish factor for gold, the ECB on Thursday is expected to expand its Pandemic QE program from its current level of 750 billion euros. In a bullish factor for industrial metals prices, Germany is in the process of boosting its fiscal stimulus measures. German lawmakers continue to hammer out a second coronavirus rescue package of up to 100 billion euros ($110 billion) after 9 hours of negotiations on Tuesday.

Precious metal prices continue to see underlying safe-haven demand from the global coronavirus pandemic. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 6.475 million globally, with deaths exceeding 383,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Tuesday rose to a new record high of 3,125.42 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 739.043 million ounces on Tuesday.



5/29/20

Metals Gain With Silver At A 3-Month High On Dollar Weakness And U.S./China Tensions

Jun Comex gold (GCM20) this morning is up +20.9 (+1.22%), and July silver (SIN20) is up +0.418 (+2.33%).

Precious metals prices this morning are rallying with silver at a 3-month high. A slump in the dollar index to a 2-1/2 month low today is bullish for metals, as is increased safe-haven demand from the escalation of U.S./China tensions. Weak U.S. economic data today is positive for gold but negative for industrial metals.

Metals are gaining on an escalation of U.S./China tensions after White House advisor Larry Kudlow said today that the U.S. is "furious" with what China has done "in recent days, weeks, and months" and said President Trump will present ideas at a press conference later today of how to hold China accountable.

Today's U.S. economic data was dovish for Fed policy and bullish for gold, but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. U.S. Apr personal spending fell by a record -13.6% m/m (data from 1959), weaker than expectations of -12.8% m/m. Also, the May Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -2.1 to an 11-year low of 32.3, weaker than expectations of +4.6 to 40.0. In addition, the final-May University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell -1.4 to 72.3, weaker than expectations of +0.3 to 74.0. Conversely, U.S. Apr personal income unexpectedly rose by a record +10.5% m/m (data from 1946), stronger than expectations of -5.9% m/m, due to federal stimulus payments to individuals under the CARES Act.

Most global economic data today was bullish for gold but negative for industrial metals demand and silver prices. German Apr retail sales fell -5.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of -12.0% m/m but still the biggest decline in 13-1/4 years. Also, Japan Apr retail sales fell -9.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -6.9% m/m and the biggest decline in 6 months. In addition, Japan Apr industrial production fell -9.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -5.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 9 years.

Slack global price pressures are negative for gold demand as a hedge against inflation after the U.S. Apr PCE core deflator eased to a 9-year low of +1.0% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y. Also, the Eurozone May CPI eased to a 4-year low of +0.1% y/y, which was in line with market expectations.

Precious metal prices continue to see underlying safe-haven demand from the global coronavirus pandemic. Confirmed cases of the virus have risen above 5.932 million globally, with deaths exceeding 362,000.

Safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations have sparked fund buying of precious metals in recent months. Long gold positions in ETFs on Thursday rose to a new record high of 3,107.71 MT (data since 2002). Also, long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high of 728.57 million ounces on Thursday.


 

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